Why Sunderland struggle to sign strikers explained and the hint of a change in approach this summer

Around a year ago, we wrote a piece outlining why Sunderland find it difficult to sign strike and why the issue seems to dominate every transfer window.

12 months on and with a new Championship campaign now just a matter of days away, it's still the issue generating the most headlines. Now Sunderland's hierarchy might quickly retort that in the intervening period, they've actually signed four strikers and spent a fair bit of money doing so. So perhaps the better question this time around is, why do they find it so hard to get the striker they need?

The best starting point is to acknowledge that this isn't an issue that is unique to Sunderland. Most supporters of Championship clubs would tell you that they need a proven number nine to transform their prospects for the season ahead and after conducting his post-match press conference on Saturday, Régis Le Bris pointed out that those at Marseille are saying exactly the same thing. The reality is that there is an increasingly small pool of strikers who you can rely on to consistently deliver goals. Part of that is probably because of the broader tactical trends in the game, where teams now rarely play with two up front. As such, strikers selected for their goalscoring output with little concern for their wider limitations are increasingly rare. So too is the old-fashioned target forward, with the changes in the modern game meaning that the centre forward is increasingly expected to be mobile and capable of leading his side's pressing game. Take a look at the top scorers in the Championship over the last few seasons. Yes, there is the occasional Aleksandar Mitrovic and Ivan Toney but the top ten is increasingly dominated by wide forwards or players who break into the box from slightly deeper roles.

This is a conundrum that Sunderland have consistently faced. They need a striker who is good enough inside the box to turn their dominance of games into goals and therefore points, but they don't want to put a player into the side who detracts from their desire to press high and who can't join in the quick link-up play around the box.

Those who can do both are rare and the consequence of that is that their price is driven up. These are the races that Sunderland are never likely to win as things stand, they simply aren't up there with the biggest spender in the division. They aren't likely to compete with clubs just have been relegated from the Premier League, who have a staggeringly large in-built advantage as a result of parachute payments. Nor under their current model are they going to compete with significant disruptors such as Ipswich Town, who landed one the biggest deals of the last January window when they brought Kieffer Moore in from Bournemouth on loan - a deal Sunderland had initially been very keen to do. Ipswich's success is a great example of those who would argue that Sunderland should invest heavily to keep pace with those coming down from the Premier League, as once you reach the top tier the riches on offer deliver an immediate and vast return on that investment. Sunderland's argument is that this is a high-risk approach, and that the second tier is littered with clubs who have had to cut their cloth rapidly or have actually been penalised for infringing the EFL's financial rules. Both are hugely destabilising and explain why Sunderland are so reluctant to commit to long-term contracts and big fees for players whose resale value could be limited, and could be a significant drain on the club's resources if the move doesn't work out for whatever reason. The model they might like to follow along the way would be Coventry City, whose vast profit generated on the sale of Viktor Gyokeres allowed them to sign Ellis Simms and Haji Wright in deals that would have previously likely been beyond their means. That could yet be the way forward for Sunderland if there is a major sale this summer, but every day closer to the end of the window that happens, the greater the risk is for the campaign ahead.

In the interim Sunderland are forced to be creative and to take more risks in their recruitment and particularly up front - something we saw in last summer's striker recruitment drive. As of yet, it hasn't worked. Luis Hemir still draws praise behind the scenes for his finishing ability but has struggled to translate that into senior football and has struggled with the club's off-the-ball demands. Nazariy Rusyn understandably needed time to settle after such a big move and in truth, that's a process that is still ongoing. Eliezer Mayenda, still just 19, is a slightly different signing in that he is a long-term investment who was never expected to immediately impact the first team. The obvious answer to all of these issues we've outlined is to develop your own strikers, and one of the key frustrations of the current hierarchy was that they came into a club where talent such as Joe Hugill and Sam Greenwood had departed. Mayenda is a long-term project and is actually showing signs of real improvement in pre-season.

Even Ross Stewart's arrival came with significant risk - the forward had often played out wide for Ross County and it took him a number of months to get into a position where he could impact the team. Increasingly, his spectacular success looks to be the exception to the rule and the progress of last summer's arrivals, including Mason Burstow, are demonstrating how difficult it is to bring in a striker with limited experience and get them to hit the ground running.

What's interesting about this summer is that Sunderland look to an extent to be accepting that point in the deals they are pursuing. The deals they have ben discussing still bring significant risk but there is a contrast to those previous deals. Alexandre Mendy, 30, top scored in Ligue 2 last season and has over 200 career appearances to his name. Were he to sign, then it would be the first time the current regime have spent a fee on a player over the age of 25. While Ike Ugbo is considerably younger, he too now has a significant amount of experience. In both cases, however, the deal is not done and it remains to be seen if Sunderland can reach the bids required to get it over the line. In Mendy’s case, it’s fair to say that the recent takeover of Caen has been a significant factor in the saga and one outside of Sunderland’s control.

And this ultimately gets to the heart of the debate, and the question that still hangs over the club as it heads into another campaign. Sunderland want a goalscorer, who can add presence in the penalty box. But to fit into the team they must also be able to get involved with combination play, run the channels and press aggressively. It very obviously follows that in order to land a player of that capability and calibre, you have to pay a premium. There have so far been some signs of flexibility in their recruitment this summer but as of yet, the most important deal is still to be done. Pre-season optimism remains somewhat tempered as a result, and it'll remain that way until Sunderland demonstrate those lessons have been learned.