Supercomputer predicts outcome of Luton Town v Sunderland as Wembley awaits the winner

The odds are stacked against Sunderland as they look to secure a place in the Championship play-off final at Luton Town on Tuesday night.

Tony Mowbray’s men will take a narrow advantage to Kenilworth Road after goals from Amad Diallo and Trai Hume helped their side recover from falling behind to an Elijah Adebayo effort with just 11 minutes on the clock.

All eyes are now on Tuesday night’s second leg and stats experts FiveThirtyEight have revealed their calculations have fallen in favour of a Luton win. It should be said the pre-match prediction ahead of Saturday’s first leg proved to be incorrect as the Black Cats win at the Stadium of Light came after Luton were viewed as slight favourites to come out on top.

Ahead of the clash on Wearside, the Hatters were given a 38% chance of claiming a first leg advantage, compared to Sunderland’s rating of 35% and the draw at 27%. However, the second leg is predicted to be a more one-sided affair with FiveThirtyEight claiming Luton have a 51% chance of claiming a win. Sunderland are rated at just 23%, with the draw set at 26%.

The winners of the tie will face either Middlesbrough or Coventry City in the play-off final at Wembley later this month and they will face off in the second leg of their semi-final at the Riverside Stadium on Wednesday night. After a goalless draw in the first leg on Sunday, Boro are rated at 50% to secure a win, which is exactly double the chances of both a Sky Blues win or draw.