Sunderland’s strange statistics tell two different stories – but one alarming trend is hard to ignore
Some figures offer encouragement for Sunderland despite their poor Premier League start, but a worrying scoring record is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore
There is no doubt Sunderland have made a poor start to the Premier League season. Five points from eight games, one victory and bottom of the table. Whatever other numbers are introduced into the conversation, those are the ones that matter most.
Yet this has also been a slightly strange opening to the campaign. Depending on which comparison you choose, Sunderland are either significantly worse off than last season or marginally better. Both statements can be supported by the figures, which is precisely why context is important.
After eight matches last season, Sunderland had 14 points. This time they have five, a nine-point decline that explains the concern surrounding Régis Le Bris’ side. There is no dressing that up as anything other than a disappointing return.
Compare the corresponding fixtures, however, and a different picture emerges. Sunderland collected three points from those matches last season, replacing relegated Burnley’s away fixture with promoted Ipswich. This season’s five therefore represents a two-point improvement against that particular selection of opponents. That is an interesting quirk, rather than a reason for celebration. It offers some perspective on the fixtures Sunderland have faced, but it cannot tell us whether they will repeat last season’s results elsewhere. Those points still need to be won.
The expected-points table adds another layer. The model places Sunderland 13th with 10 expected points, compared with their actual five. Their expected-goals figure stands at 11.4, against six scored, suggesting their opportunities have produced considerably less than the model would anticipate. That does not automatically make Sunderland unlucky. Finishing is part of football, as are the decisions and execution that turn promising situations into goals. Expected points provide another way of assessing performances; they do not represent points Sunderland are owed.
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The defensive figures also deserve attention. An expected-goals-against total of 15 across eight matches hardly suggests everything would be fine with sharper finishing. There are issues at both ends, even if Sunday’s clean sheet against Leeds offered encouragement. The longer-term home scoring record is particularly uncomfortable. Since beating Burnley on February 2, Sunderland have scored just five goals in 11 home league matches, drawing blanks in eight.
Those goals comprise Enzo Le Fée’s penalty against Fulham, Nordi Mukiele’s heavily deflected winner against Tottenham, Trai Hume’s finish and Malo Gusto’s own goal against Chelsea, and Wilson Isidor’s winner against Fulham this season. It is a thin return stretching across two campaigns. Their current league scoring drought stands at 301 minutes, excluding stoppage time, following three successive blanks since Brian Brobbey completed his hat-trick at Manchester City. That is more than three full matches without a goal.
Europe, injuries and suspensions belong in any fair assessment. So do the chances created and the improvement against Leeds. But acknowledging those factors does not require anyone to minimise Sunderland’s position. The statistics paint a complicated picture. The league table remains brutally straightforward. Sunderland need to turn whatever encouragement exists into goals and victories, because context alone will not move them off the bottom.