How close are Sunderland to Europa League qualification? Dinamo Zagreb clash could change the picture
The points Sunderland could need to progress in Europe as Dinamo Zagreb and Jagiellonia visit Wearside
Sunderland have the opportunity to reach 13 Europa League points before their December trip to Milan, with successive home fixtures next on their European schedule.
Régis Le Bris’ side collected seven points from their opening three matches, beating AZ Alkmaar and Torreense before drawing at Lech Poznań.
Dinamo Zagreb visit the Stadium of Light on November 5, followed by Jagiellonia Białystok on November 26. Victories in both would leave Sunderland with 13 points and three league-phase fixtures still to play. That total would have comfortably secured a play-off place in each of the first two seasons under the competition’s current format. However, automatic qualification for the last 16 has required more.
How does qualification work?
All 36 clubs share one table, with each playing eight different opponents. The top eight qualify directly for the round of 16. Teams finishing ninth to 24th enter the knockout play-offs, while those placed 25th to 36th are eliminated.
Direct qualification would allow Sunderland to avoid the two play-off matches scheduled for February 18 and 25. Their knockout campaign would instead begin in March.
How many points are needed for the play-offs?
The first two seasons provide a useful guide, although there is no fixed points total that guarantees progression. In 2024-25, Fenerbahçe claimed the final play-off place in 24th with 10 points. Last season, Brann occupied the same position with nine. Simply matching those totals can leave a team relying on goal difference. Young Boys also collected nine points in 2025-26 but finished 25th and were eliminated.
On that evidence, 11 or 12 points would be a sensible target for Sunderland to put themselves in a strong position for at least the play-offs. Both totals would have been enough in the previous two editions, but neither is a mathematical guarantee this season. With seven points already secured, one more win would take Sunderland to 10. A win and a draw would bring them to 11, while two victories would put them on 13.
What about going straight into the last 16?
The top-eight threshold has been higher and has varied between seasons. Rangers finished eighth with 14 points in 2024-25. Roma took the final automatic qualification place with 16 last season, edging out Genk on goal difference despite both clubs collecting the same number of points.
That makes around 16 points a reasonable benchmark for a top-eight challenge, rather than a guaranteed finishing line. Reaching 17 would have cleared the eighth-place total in both previous seasons. For Sunderland, three wins from their remaining five matches would produce 16 points. Three wins and a draw would take them to 17.
What comes after the home fixtures?
Sunderland travel to Milan on December 10 and Anderlecht on January 21 before finishing at home against Levski Sofia on January 28.
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Taking maximum points against Dinamo and Jagiellonia would therefore leave them on 13, needing another win to reach last season’s top-eight benchmark. There would still be work to do, but those two home games offer Sunderland the chance to turn a promising start into a serious challenge for direct qualification.
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