Sunderland's concerning form and performance data - and how it compares to fellow play-off contenders

Sunderland's disappointing defeat and performance against Oxford United crystallised fears for many supporters that the team is heading into the play-off campaign struggling for both rhythm and momentum.

The Black Cats have lost four Championship games in a row, this latest setback the most concerning given that Régis Le Bris had named close to his strongest XI. To what extent form is an indicator of play-off victory remains hugely debatable; Southampton lost three in a row before winning on the final day of the regular campaign before their success last time around.

Yet it's undeniable that Sunderland are well short of their best in terms of both results and performances at a crucial time. Both the form guide and their performance data make for concerning reading, but how does it compare to their potential play-off rivals? Since the March international break, Sunderland's points haul of seven points from seven games is the 18th-best in the division and that stat is more sobering when you consider six of those points came in the two games at the very start of the sequence.

The other play-off contenders all by and large boast a middling record in that time, however. Coventry City have also taken seven points from seven, unable to build on that thumping 3-0 win over the Black Cats just before the break. Sheffield United have taken nine points in that time, Bristol City and Middlesbrough ten. The 'form' teams in that time have been Blackburn Rovers and Millwall, who have taken 13 and 15 points respectively from their seven fixtures.

Perhaps of greater concern to Sunderland fans will be the performances behind those results. Studying data from wyscout, there is little to suggest that they have been unlucky in that time. In the seven games since the international break, they have registered an average expected goals of just 0.94 per game, well down from their season average of 1.38. That decline is backed up by much of their attacking data; their average number of shots per game is down to just below 10 in that time from a season average of 12. They're taking fewer touches in the opposition box, down to 18 from their season average of around 20.

It's a similar story at the other end of the pitch, though their statistics since the international break are skewed a little by the fact that they played almost the entirety of the game at Bristol City with ten. Their average expected-goals against has jumped to 1.42 from a season average of 1.15 since the break, though the Black Cats may well argue that performances in that such as the one at West Brom demonstrate that the organisation of the team out of possession remains strong in the main.

Sunderland's current performance levels compare poorly to their fellow play-off contenders, with the attacking XG superior only to Blackburn Rovers in those games since the international break. Their XG against in the same timeframe is superior only to Bristol City. A difference of -0.48 between their average XG for and against since the break is comfortably the worst of the play-off hopefuls.

The potential reasons for Sunderland fans to be optimistic

There is of course a major mitigating factor here, which is that Sunderland have been rotating their team significantly while others are focused on trying to secure their place in the top six. Sunderland's plan is that their freshness when those play-offs come around will provide a significant edge in tight, tense games.

It should also be said that their rivals are not necessarily firing on all cylinders at the moment. Only Middlesbrough have produced better performance data since the international break against their season average, and yet their results mean they are now firm outsiders to finish in the top six on final day. Bristol City and Blackburn Rovers both have an inferior average XG to their XG-against since the March break while Sheffield United’s is better by only 0.05. In both attack and defence, their numbers are poorer over the last seven games when compared to the season as a whole. There really is little evidence to suggest that any team is building up a real head of steam heading into next month’s game, with the tension and the rigours of a long season showing just about everywhere. Millwall's excellent form is backed up by a big uplift in their attacking numbers, but their defence is also looser. That is perhaps an inevitable consequence of their status as outsiders in the race and the need to chase wins as a result, and so no one should be betting against Alex Neil's side either on final day or thereafter.

If Sunderland fans are looking for reasons to be optimistic, then is that on their day they are more than a match for anyone in this league. Their XG over the season as a whole is bettered only by Coventry City and Middlesbrough when it comes to the play-off contenders, their XG-against bettered only by Sheffield United.

The million-dollar question is how quickly they can get back to those levels when the play-off games begin. The performance at Oxford United was not particularly encouraging on that front, but they have another game against QPR and two full of weeks of training before their promotion fate is settled.

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