Why momentum may not matter too much to Sunderland's play-off campaign after all

Momentum. It’s a word that Sunderland are likely to hear a lot between now and their looming Championship play-off campaign.

The Black Cats are guaranteed a shot at Wembley and the Premier League next month, but before then, they have the small matter of four more fixtures to contest, and while they may not be dead rubbers as such, with fourth place all but secured, they might as well be.

Instead, then, there is an argument to be made for Sunderland’s next four outings being of heightened significance because of the momentum, or lack thereof, they could generate before the going truly gets tough.

But, with that in mind, just how important is momentum anyways? We’ve taken a closer look at the last five play-off winners, and their form heading into their respective bids for promotion, to determine how much we can read into Sunderland’s chances based on what they might produce between now and mid-May...

Southampton - 2023/24

The Saints endured a really tricky run just prior to their successful play-off bid, losing three of their final five matches, including a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Leicester City. That defeat was bookended by reversals against Cardiff City and Stoke City, but interestingly, Russell Martin’s men were able to pull themselves together enough to beat Leeds United on the final day, before going on to sucker-punch the Whites in the play-off final at Wembley too.

Luton Town - 2022/23

Luton would, of course, beat Sunderland on their way to the Championship play-off final in 2023, but prior to that, the Hatters actually ended the season in pretty indifferent form. Three draws in their final five matches, including a sharing of the spoils with both Blackburn Rovers and Hull City in their last two games, hardly gave the impression of a side storming into their promotion bid having built up a head of steam.

Nottingham Forest - 2021/22

Forest put together a promising run towards the back end of their promotion campaign, only to taper off ever so slightly just prior to the play-offs. Narrow victories over Peterborough United and Fulham were followed by a 5-1 drubbing of Swansea City, only for the Midlands club to come unstuck against Bournemouth, and then draw 1-1 with Hull City on the final day.

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Brentford - 2020/21

Compared to others on this list, Brentford entered the play-offs in remarkably strong form. The Bees didn’t lose a game in the Championship after March 3rd during their promotion campaign, and they dropped points in just one of their final quintet of matches, recording successive victories against Bournemouth, Rotherham United, Watford, and Bristol City to see them over the line.

Fulham - 2019/20

Fulham bounced back from consecutive defeats on match day 38 and 39 to end their season with an unbeaten run of seven outings. Their momentum did falter a touch right at the last, however, with draws against West Brom and Wigan Athletic coming either side of a dramatic 5-3 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.

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