I've watched Sunderland's fifteen Championship games and here's what I think about their promotion prospects
Sunderland have made a superb start to the campaign but endured a frustrating week before the international break
Fifteen games in, and Sunderland's start to the Championship campaign has been better than anyone would have anticipated. They have 31 points and sit top of the table, albeit only on goal difference following Sheffield United's win over their local rivals on Sunday. Yet there is understandably a touch of frustration in the air on Wearside, after a week in which they took three points from three games.
After two underwhelming performances at QPR and Preston they looked to have swept Coventry City away with a brilliant first-half showing, only to be pegged back to a 2-2 draw by full time. It's a week that can be viewed either as a sequence of opportunities missed, a reversion to the mean for a team few realistically expected to challenge for the top two, or something in between. So should Sunderland fans feel bullish, or concerned about the weeks ahead?
Were you to look for signs of optimism, then the starting point would be that the second-half collapse against the Sky Blues was very much the exception for a side that has been not far off flawless on home turf so far this season. Leeds United arguably had the better of Sunderland over 90 minutes at the Stadium of Light, but they were not dominant and the early indications are that if you finish above Daniel Farke's side this season you will most likely be in the Premier League next season. Sunderland were very good value for all of their five wins on Wearside, whether that be pressing high and dominating possession or defending resolutely and playing on the break. Thus far the evidence is that their struggles against Coventry might be a one-off rather than a concerning pattern, and there was mitigation in both the gruelling schedule of the week previous and the injuries to Romaine Mundle and Alan Browne. If Sunderland continue picking up 2.4 points-per-game at home, then they have the platform for a top-six finish at the very least.
Away from home performances have been significantly more mixed (though Sunderland have the second best record on the road in terms of points) and perhaps their frustrating results at QPR and Preston saw that catch up with them a little bit. Imposing their style on teams in their own backyard has proved a trickier task, and even in wins at Luton and Cardiff City they rode their luck a touch. It's that level of performance in particular that has seen Le Bris guarded whenever Sunderland's lofty position in the table has been brought up over the first few months of the campaign, his demeanour reflecting the fact that he is well aware that the margins in many of those games have been fine and that there is much his team need to improve.
The statistics reflect that, Sunderland's expected-goals tally only the 13th-best in the division according to Opta and their defensive equivalent the eighth best. Context is important to that as Sunderland have taken the lead in a disproportionate number of their games, which you would expect to lead to the opposition having more shots from dangerous areas. What it tells us is that Sunderland were perhaps slightly overperforming coming into last week's run of games, and those three results have left us with a slightly more accurate picture of their level.
What is clear is that when everyone is fit and firing, Sunderland have an XI the match of anyone in the division. What the next few weeks will tell us is whether they have the depth they need to maintain their form through the gruelling winter. On paper, they have competition in just about every position but injuries mean that hasn't yet been Le Bris's reality. Salis Abdul Samed and Ian Poveda, for example, are yet to start a game and that seems highly unlikely to change in the next three-game week after the international break. Le Bris generally prefers to make minimal changes from the bench and later in games, but it's also true that there have been many games where he hasn't had much of an alternative. If Sunderland's injury list does not clear significantly in the weeks ahead, then January is shaping up to be a critically important month to ensure the Black Cats have what they need to reach their best level more consistently across 90 minutes in these demanding three-game weeks.
While Sunderland's impressive points haul has inevitably led to expectations rising, it's important to keep in mind the context that they are far from the biggest spenders in this division and remain at a considerable disadvantage to those in receipt of parachute payments. Equally, some fans might rightly point out that the division looks weaker this season than last time out and given the board's stated ambition to return to the Premier League by the end of the next campaign, this is therefore a huge opportunity that they have to capitalise on. That will again come into focus when the January window opens if Sunderland have managed to maintain their position near the top of the table.
It has by any measurement been a superb start to the campaign from Sunderland, and there is no reason to believe that they cannot finish in the top six. Indeed, to fail to do so would be a significant disappointment given their current points haul. Beyond that? Le Bris knows they need to improve from this impressive foundation. They will also need good luck on the injury front, and a strong winter window.