Championship play-offs predicted by data experts as Sunderland’s chances rated compared to Luton Town, Middlesbrough & Coventry

Sunderland will get their bid for a second consecutive promotion via the play-offs underway on Saturday evening when Championship rivals Luton Town visit the Stadium of Light.

There has been little to choose between the two sides so far this season with an Elliott Embleton goal earning the Black Cats a 1-1 draw at Kenilworth Road in October and a late Amad Diallo penalty ensuring the second meeting ending in the same result on Wearside in March.

Both sides have surpassed pre-season expectations by securing a top six spot and they will hope to keep alive their promotion hopes and set up a Wembley date with either Middlesbrough or Coventry City by coming through a two-legged semi-final other the coming five days.

Ahead of both play-off semi-final ties, data experts at FiveThirtyEight have rated every team’s probability of securing promotion via the play-offs. Using their defensive and attacking ratings for each team, which are accumulated and based on seasonal performances, matches are simulated thousands of times to discover the likelihood of every team winning the play-offs.

The outcome of the data suggests Saturday’s Stadium of Light clash is an open affair, with Sunderland rated as having a 35% chance of a home win and Luton slightly favoured at 38% chance of securing a first leg advantage. The draw is set at 27%.

The return leg at Kenilworth Road falls heavily in the favour of the Hatters, who are set at 52% likely to earn a win, compared to Sunderland at just 22% and a draw is 26%.

Looking at the overall chances of progression to a Wembley final against either Boro or the Sky Blues and promotion back into the Premier League, Sunderland are said to have a 15% chance of making it consecutive promotions. That compares to Coventry’s 20% and both Luton and Middlesbrough are rated at 32%.

Ahead of Saturday’s first leg both Black Cats manager Tony Mowbray and Hatters counterpart Rob Edwards revealed their thoughts on the play-offs and how their respective sides would approach the tie.

Speaking on Friday morning, Mowbray said: “These games are all big games and the mentality of our group has been - because of the injuries, because of the adversity - to express ourselves, play as we play, do what we’re good at and see where it takes us. I don’t see a reason to change that, this weekend, the game itself is a big game.”

Edwards also expressed a determination to stay true to the approach that has seen his side secure a play-off spot for the second consecutive season, saying: ”I’m sure it will be an exciting couple of games, but we’re not going up there to just sit, wait and let them come onto us, that’s just not how we play. If a draw is a good result, only time will tell, but we’re not going up there looking for that at all.”