The Sunderland striker 'target' who is £8m cheaper than Tom Cannon - and outperforming Wilson Isidor

If Sunderland are to sign Tom Cannon this month, they are - bluntly speaking - going to have to go big or go home. In recent days, Wearside has been awash with increasingly bombastic speculation - talk of £13 million price tags, of battles with promotion rivals Sheffield United and Burnley, of Everton performing a sort of rumour mill Hokey Cokey; first they’re in, then they’re out, then they’re in, then they’re out again. I’m sure we can all agree that the thought of David Moyes shaking it all about is enough to put anybody off their tea.

All of this is to say that for all of their apparent interest in Cannon, there are no guarantees that the Black Cats will be able to sign the Republic of Ireland international over the coming days. And if they are to miss out, then alternatives will have to be found. Enter the fray, Matija Frigan.

The Croatian is currently on the books at Belgian outfit KVC Westerlo, and earlier this week became the latest in a meandering list of recent Sunderland striker targets that is threatening to end up longer than the Domesday Book. He is a 21-year-old, signed for around £4.6 million roughly 18 months ago, and he has registered seven goals and three assists across 22 outings in all competitions this season. So far, so numerical.

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And now for the juicier details. According to continental outlet Voetbal Nieuws, Frigan would be “happy” to sign for Sunderland should they come calling over the next couple of weeks, while Westerlo themselves are said to be open to the prospect of selling him on, provided they are able to recoup the £4.6 million or so they forked out for him in 2023.

There is, then, a deal to be struck in the approximations of the Belgian press - but is it one worth doing? Well, for one thing, if we take the figures being bandied around as gospel truth, Frigan would be a considerable lump cheaper than Cannon. Maybe that should be an influential factor and maybe it shouldn’t - either way, it is still something to note. On the other hand, the Westerlo starlet is a relatively novice talent with absolutely no experience of the English game whatsoever. Again, only Kristjaan Speakman and Regis Le Bris will know exactly how important that is to their thinking.

What we can pass judgement on with a decent amount of subjectivity, however, is his recent record in Belgium - and on first inspection, it holds up pretty well. If we take Sunderland’s current leading man Wilson Isidor as a yardstick by which we measure Frigan’s output, the most conspicuous thing is that there is actually very little difference between them in some aspects of their play - and even a few areas in which the Croatian is superior.

According to FBRef, Frigan is averaging 0.43 goals per 90 minutes this season, just a shade beneath Isidor’s return of 0.45. Factor in assists as well, however, and the Westerlo forward is actually producing 0.05 more goal contributions per outing than the Sunderland favourite. Granted, Isidor is working from a lower xG, meaning that he is statistically more efficient in front of goal, but nevertheless, it makes for an interesting parallel.

Elsewhere - and this may seem hard to believe given everything we have seen from the Frenchman on Wearside so far, but stay with me - Frigan also outstrips Isidor in his ability to carry his side further up the pitch and into attacking areas. Whether it be progressive carries in possession, progressive passes into teammates, or progressive passes received from those around him, the 21-year-old bests his Black Cats counterpart in every category. Indeed, in terms of progressive passes made per 90 minutes, he eclipses Isidor by 2.00 to 0.78, and the total progressive distance that those passes cover is, unsurprisingly, more than double that of the Frenchman.

In terms of shooting, Isidor retains an edge over Frigan, but the margins are fine. The Stadium of Light marksman averages 0.01 more shots per 90 minutes, and just 0.04 more shots on target, meaning that the difference in their shooting accuracy amounts to a single percentage point in Isidor’s favour. It is also worth emphasising that while the Sunderland striker is more efficient in relation to his xG, Frigan is hardly lagging behind; the Westerlo man is averaging 0.43 goals per game from an xG of exactly 0.43.

There are other intriguing comparisons between the two as well. In fact, let’s play a little game. Who do you think averages more shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, Isidor or Frigan? What about goal-creating chances? Or successful take-ons? Who do you think records more carries into the opposition penalty area? Is dispossessed fewer times? Wins more aerial duels? If you answered Frigan to all of those questions, well done. Although, if we’re being honest, I did kind of signpost it.

Of course, none of this is intended to diminish the work of Isidor, who has been largely superb since arriving on Wearside over the summer. Similarly, there are caveats that have to be considered - Frigan is arguably competing in a less ferociously contested division, and you suspect that if he were truly an irrefutable, bona fide finished article then Westerlo would be demanding a fair whack more than £4.6 million for his services.

But at the very least, the stats suggest that he is a player of immense quality, and one who would compliment Sunderland in much the same way that Isidor has over the past few months. If nothing else, Frigan is an option worth considering.