The interesting and surprising stats about Sunderland's poor home form - and the big hint about what's next

He ended by adding, with a wry smile, that he hoped for some positive results on home turf soon. The club hierarchy had been asked about this early in the evening, and the Chairman made clear that it was absolutely something that had been troubling him and a topic of discussion for hours after the defeat to Cardiff City.

Coming into the campaign, the consensus was that home form would be crucial to stabilising at a new level. There was a widespread expectation that there would be some difficult days against more experienced and established opposition, but that on some occasions the 40,000 crowd would at least in part redress the balance.

To say it hasn’t quite worked out that way so far would be an understatement. Sunderland have an exceptional away record, 17 points from 11 games putting them third in the division. At home there are only two teams with a worse points haul than the 10 from 9 Sunderland have managed. While a slightly uneven fixtures list has played a part, the vast majority have played more home games and fewer away than the Black Cats, it is nevertheless a very clear discrepancy in terms of points-per-game. So what’s going on?

Looking a little deeper at the performances behind the results tells an interesting tale, and perhaps drops a big hint as to what to expect in the second half of the season…

What the data says…

Statistically, there is a clear gap in Sunderland’s home and away performances: they are a much better side at the Stadium of Light.

Of course statistics can only tell part of the story but by looking at some key performance metrics, we can establish the extent to which Sunderland are better or worse than their opponent from week to week. Here, we’re talking about expected goals, deep completed passes, touches in the opposition penalty area, shots and penalty-box entries.

At home, Sunderland are on average outperforming their opponent. From their nine games so far they average an expected-goals tally of 1.38, against an opposition average of 1.18 (according to wyscout’s modelling).

They are taking more shots, almost 13 to 10 on average. They average more touches in the box (17 to 15.67) and more penalty box entries (23 to 20).

Away from home it’s the opposite. Their expected-goals average drops to 0.96, while the opposition’s rises significantly to 1.5.

The opposition take more shots (13.18 to 10.27), have more touches in the penalty area (20.73 to 13.64) and enter the penalty box (through crosses or dribbles) considerably more, at an average of 26 to 19.64.

If this level of performance continues through the remaining 26 games, then the likelihood is that Sunderland will find their away form very difficult to sustain, but will see that offset by an increase in points secured on Wearside.

But just how likely is it to pan out that way?

A clear shift that tells a tale…

Sunderland’s expected-goals average at home before Ross Stewart and Ellis Simms suffered significant injuries was 2.06. In the five games since, that has dropped to 0.84.

The impact of losing both natural strikers was felt in both boxes: Sunderland became less dangerous and significantly more vulnerable from set pieces, particularly as Dan Ballard and then Aji Alese suffered injuries. Both Blackpool and Preston North End outperformed the Black Cats on chances created, though for the latter it was almost exclusively from set plays. Playing in a low block and frustrating the home side while they lack an obvious focal point has become a viable and successful strategy.

Simms was available for the defeat to Cardiff City, but Tony Mowbray later admitted he was well short of the fitness levels required to make an impact from the start. That was Sunderland’s worst home performance yet, Mowbray feeling the need to protect his more senior players from the risk of burnout. A young, attacking selection ultimately backfired in a deserved defeat.

With Amad now emerging as a genuine force, and with Stewart and Simms likely to be in the squad from Millwall onwards, there is a hope that Sunderland’s home performances can get back to those even stronger levels from the opening weeks of the season. Avoid late equalisers from goalkeepers and some elusive wins would almost certainly follow. They might find it tougher to replicate that level entirely, as teams are wiser to their quality and less likely to be as open as they were back in August, but it feels as if revisiting this question when Mowbray has been able to call on his centre forwards for a longer period will produce a different result.

So what next?

Sunderland’s impressive away form has been built largely on clinical finishing, managing to produce wins even when their performances have arguably been less impressive than that of their opposition. Huddersfield and Birmingham City will feel hard done by that they didn’t get something from the game, but were undone by some terrific team and individual goals (in fairness, Sunderland were incredibly unlucky to be beaten by Blackburn in almost a direct mirror of those two games).

One thing does seem clear and that’s that without strikers, it has been easier for Sunderland to play away from home where there are more counter-attacking opportunities for players such as Amad and Patrick Roberts to thrive.

Mowbray will nevertheless welcome the opportunity to mix up his team’s gameplan, making them less reliant on those passing moves that are hard to replicate in each and every game.

He hopes we will see a truer picture of what his Sunderland will be with key players back after the World Cup break, and that is particularly the case on home turf.

All stats courtesy of wyscout.com