Phil Smith: The eye-catching stats that prove Sunderland's strong start is no fluke & where they must improve
Sunderland have made an impressive start to their Premier League campaign despite losing to ManUtd
Sunderland's Premier League campaign has so far gone better than many fans would have dared to hope, with Régis Le Bris's side still sitting in the top half despite their 2-0 defeat to Manchester United.
Eleven points and three wins from seven games represents an excellent start, but how sustainable is Sunderland's form? Here, we take a closer look at their performances to flag up some major positives and some areas for improvement...
The defensive platform
Even the briefest of glances at the Premier League table underlines the key reason why Sunderland have made such a strong start: They don't concede many goals. Sunderland have let in just six, a record bettered only by Arsenal, Spurs, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United. Scratch beneath the surface, and you might begin to fear that perhaps this isn't particularly sustainable over the course of a season. After all, Sunderland have conceded the fifth-most shots in the division so far and only two teams (Burnley and West Ham) have allowed their opponents more touches inside their penalty area. Sunderland are unlikely to be too troubled by this, however. More important is that their expected-goals against is the fifth best in the division, and only Arsenal and Newcastle perform better when it comes to the average XG of each opposition shot. Put simply, Sunderland's opponents get a lot of shots on goal but very few high quality chances. Sunderland's strategy of investing in strong defenders is already paying off, while Dan Ballard making more blocks and clearances per 90 minutes played than any defender in the division. Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete are excelling individually, giving a strong degree of confidence that this defensive resilience is sustainable.
Undoubtedly, Sunderland are vulnerable to a dip in form when it comes to goalkeeper Robin Roefs. He has the third best save percentage in the division and ranks third for XG prevented, and so is clearly a key part of the team's strong start. Generally, though, he is being protected well by those in front of him and facing few shots highly likely to result in a goal.
That this defensive resilience is by design rather than accident is underlined by the fact that Sunderland are in the bottom six when it comes to how aggressively they press the opposition. They've built a team and a squad capable of absorbing pressure and so far, it's working very well.
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The attacking concern
Such defensive resilience has undoubtedly come at a cost at the other end of the pitch. So far, they have been one of the weaker sides when it comes to their attacking play and are the third-worst team in the division when it comes to XG, with only Burnley and Wolves producing a lower number up until this point. That is borne out by Sunderland's performance in other key attacking metrics - they are fourth-bottom for shots per 90 and only Burnley have had fewer touches of the ball in the opposition box. They are also 15th for both passes into the final third and deep completions. Again, this won't be of too great a concern for Sunderland as their focus through the early stages of pre-season and the Premier League campaign was ensuring that players that had gone through a huge amount of change understood their roles out of possession first and foremost. Le Bris is confident that his team will begin to improve their attacking output as time goes on, but it's undoubtedly the biggest area of concern from the opening seven fixtures.
Set piece threat - a big boost but perhaps an over-reliance
Sunderland's general attacking limitations are also brought into focus by the fact they are actually a big threat from set pieces. So far this season only Crystal Palace have had more shots immediately following a dead-ball situation and their defenders are consistently having a good number of their better chances. As you'd expect, Wilson Isidor leads the squad for his individual XG total, followed by Chemsdine Talbi and Enzo Le Fée (mostly because of his penalty against Brentford). After that, both Dan Ballard and Omar Alderete rank highly for XG and touches in the opposition box, where Nordi Mukiele also sits near the top of the chart.
To be clear, this is a big positive for Sunderland moving into the rest of the campaign. It's a vindication of their move to strengthen their backroom staff by hiring Jame Brayne as a specific set-piece coach from Charlton Athletic, and their recruitment strategy more broadly in recruiting players with aerial threat and physicality. There's no reason to think they won't consistently create chances from this avenue, particularly with the quality of Granit Xhaka's delivery. It would also be fair to say that they need to keep adding threats from other areas of the pitch and from open play in particular. It's probably coincidence that one of their most disappointing performances to date came against Burnley, when falling behind early in the second half allowed their opponents to be the team that defended deep and frustrate.
So... is this sustainable?
In short, probably. Sunderland have conceded their six goals from 7.99 XG, an overperformance but not an unsustainable one. Similarly, they've scored seven goals from 6.93 XG. Wyscout's expected points model, which predicts where they would expect a team to be in the table given their attacking and defensive output, has Sunderland sitting in 13th with nine points. A competitive side, then, that is proving not just in results but performance level that they can compete at this level over the course of the campaign.
There's no doubt that Sunderland have benefited from a relatively benign fixture list, only two of their seven fixtures so far have been played against teams currently sit in the top ten and we may have a truer picture of their level after the next six fixtures in which they play four sides currently in the top half. Burnley, for example, have already played four of the current top ten. AFCON also looms large on the horizon for Sunderland, where they expect to miss six or seven senior players for at least four Premier League fixtures.
There is a lot of hard work ahead but it's undeniably the case that Sunderland have given themselves a clear platform for survival. They've learned from the mistakes of previously promoted teams and built a side that understands the need to defend well and work hard out of possession. There has thus far been enough quality to turn that platform into positive results and if the defensive structure remains sound, Sunderland should continue to pick up points. They will know nothing has been achieved yet, but Sunderland will be quietly confident that this first stage of establishing themselves at the level has gone largely to plan.
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