Sunderland's 'easy start' claim debunked and how they've already bucked recent Premier League trend

Sunderland are the first promoted side to win two of their first three Premier League fixtures since Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds United in 2020/21. That bodes well for the Black Cats, given that Bielsa's side went on to finish ninth and become one of the few sides in recent years to buck the trend of promoted clubs suffering an immediate relegation back to the second tier.

So how does the start Régis Le Bris and his players have made compare to those teams to win promotion over the last five seasons and what does it tell us about their survival prospects? Here, we take a closer look...

Sunderland's strong start and why supporters can take heart from it

By taking two wins from their first three games before the international break, Sunderland have made a start almost unprecedented in recent times for a promoted club. While clearly three games is far too small a sample size to draw definitive conclusions about how a team will fare over a whole campaign, the general trend of recent years is that teams who have won promotion and been competitive generally show some early signs of promise.

The last two campaigns have been something of a nadir for newly-promoted sides, with all six being immediately relegated. There were clear signs early on of the struggle they would face, too. It looks Leicester City seven games to reach six points last season, and they had just one after their opening three fixtures. Ipswich Town took one point from their first three games and took 11 games to reach six points, while Southampton at this stage did not have a point on the board and didn't reach six points until December, 17 games into the campaign. The previous season was a similar story. All three promoted teams lost all three of their opening fixtures, with Luton Town and Burnley both reaching six points after 11 games. Sheffield United got there after 16.

2022/23 is a fascinating case in that it was a strong outlier in recent years, with all three promoted teams managing to avoid the drop. All three showed some initial promise, even if Bournemouth would soon sack Scott Parker after a 9-0 defeat to Liverpool. They beat Aston Villa 2-0 on opening day, and won their sixth game of the campaign (now under the charge of Gary O'Neil). Fulham were unbeaten through their first three games of the campaign under Marco Silva, taking five points and securing their sixth on the fifth game of the campaign. Nottingham Forest took four points form their first three, but did take 12 games to reach six.

In 2021/22, Brentford were the only team of three promoted from the Championship to go on and survive. They made a hugely impressive start, taking five points from three games and reaching six after just five games. Watford also reached six points after five games but were eventually relegated, while Norwich took 12 games to reach that mark and eventually finished bottom. They lost all three of their opening fixtures.

Bielsa's Leeds United were the best promoted side of the last five seasons, and the only ream to match Sunderland's two wins from their opening three games. West Brom and Fulham both took 10 matches to reach six points that season, and at this stage of the campaign had one and zero points to their name respectively.

Sunderland's start means little at this stage, but fans can take heart from the fact that a strong start has in the past tended to indicate a team capable of being at the very least competitive over the full season.

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The 'easy start' claim addressed

There's absolutely no doubt that the fixture list has been relatively kind to Sunderland, handed two home fixtures in the first block against a West Ham United side widely tipped to struggle and a Brentford side undergoing a period of huge transition (though West Ham's emphatic win over Nottingham Forest before the break was a reminder that they have some very high-quality players). Realistically, they were fixtures that Sunderland need to do well in if they are to be competitive. A loss to fellow promoted side Burnley was a disappointing result and an opportunity missed given some key chances spurned in the opening minutes of the game.

Sunderland's start looks very generous compared to some sides in recent years. Ipswich Town, for example, started last season with fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester City. Regardless of how highly you rate, Le Bris, Xhaka and co, it's a stretch to think Sunderland would have taken two wins from three in that scenario. There are undoubtedly tougher periods ahead for Sunderland, and key to their fortunes is going to be how they manage those tricky spells. The Africa Cup of Nations later this year also threatens to pose a significant challenge during an already tricky fixture schedule at that time. We can’t quite be certain of Sunderland’s top-tier quality in the same way neutrals may have been in 2021/22, when they took those five points from a home game against Arsenal and tricky away fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.

There's a couple of key points to make there, though. One is that having relatively kind fixtures doesn't guarantee wins. Take a look at West Ham and Brentford's results against the promoted sides last season, for example. Brentford took 18 points from 18 against those sides, while West Ham United took 13. Wolves, the closest side to the relegation zone apart from Manchester United and Spurs, took 15 from those six fixtures. One of the key reasons why these sides were able to steer so far clear of trouble is precisely how regularly they took points off the promoted sides. There was nothing inevitable about Sunderland's solid start, and they deserve credit for it.

It's also worth noting that a key factor behind Sunderland's aggressive and early summer recruitment was because they felt building momentum early in the season was vital. History suggests that is exactly right, and they've made the start they needed. It doesn't mean they will survive, but it does give them a fighting chance.

Why Leeds United and Burnley have also set their stall out...

One thing to note is that it's not just Sunderland that will have the lower midtable clubs looking over their shoulder. The four points taken by Daniel Farke's Leeds United also a represents a very solid start, particularly as one of their opening fixtures was away at Arsenal. Two wins and no goals conceded from their opening two fixtures at home suggests that like Sunderland, they have a solid structure and platform to eke out more points than the last batch of promoted teams.

Burnley's three points is also a reasonable start judging by recent campaigns, and there were positives from their two defeats away at Spurs and most definitely at Manchester United where they were undone only by a stoppage-time penalty.

From a Sunderland perspective, it doesn't look like it will simply be a case of getting above one of the existing Premier League teams to survive. For neutrals, the early evidence will raise hopes that there might for the first time in three seasons be a genuine relegation battle this time around. All three teams have shown signs that they have learned the lessons of seasons gone by and prioritised a strong defensive structure - it’s already yielding results.

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