Why Sunderland accepted Jack Clarke bid, why now and what happens next as deal nears

Just like last summer, Sunderland’s great will he stay or will he go saga burned slowly but came to a surprisingly swift conclusion. 

After over a year of frenzied speculation and growing anxiety on Wearside, Jack Clarke was bound for Portman Road before news of Ipswich Town’s first formal bid had even been fully digested. Like Ross Stewart a year ago the speed with which the deal happened reflected the fact that up until the closing stages of the window, the much-touted interest in Clarke had not really materialised. With a week to go, it was approaching deal or no deal time. Sunderland have again opted for the former.

There are, of course, a couple of key differences between the two. Stewart had entered the final year of his deal and there were also significant question marks over his long-term fitness. After the initial dismay, Sunderland supporters could at least take comfort from the fact that the club had secured a good deal in the circumstances.

Now, the general feeling is that Sunderland have sold themselves short on a player whose record at second-tier level stands up to just about anyone’s over the last two years. Take a look at some of the deals that have happened across the division and you can understand why: Crysencio Summerville has joined West Ham United for a reported £25 million, Georginio Rutter heading to Brighton for £40 million or thereabouts. Clarke’s record compares favourably to both but he will leave for an initial fee of around £15 million. A not insignificant chunk of that will be due to Spurs as part of the deal agreed to sign him permanently two years ago. Sources close to the deal believe that around £5 million of potential add-ons have been agreed, and around £3 million of that is almost certain to be realised over the next year or so. Sources believe the final £2 million is unlikely to be realised, though it is a possibility. A sell-on fee, it should be said, has also been included and so if Clarke does well and moves on again then the deal will eventually be worth north of £20 million to Sunderland. 

So why this bid, and why now? Fundamentally, it is because Sunderland had not fielded a major bid for Clarke all summer. There were interested clubs, but nothing more than that. Southampton had an interest but it did not accelerate, Leeds United were very keen on a reunion following Summerville’s departure but quickly accepted that they would not get to the level required. The anticipated interest from midtable but upwardly-mobile Premier League clubs such as West Ham United, Brentford and Crystal Palace never came to pass. Even news of Ipswich’s bid did not bring out any other interested parties. It was pretty much this deal or no deal.  Sunderland had two options, to haggle extensively to try and lift the fee or opt to keep Clarke for the foreseeable. They chose not to do the former because in their view, getting it done now leaves them with more time to try and get the replacements they need. They have long been tracking forward players in case of his departure, but some have already moved in this window.

Keeping Clarke was not deemed a realistic prospect for two reasons. One is that though Sunderland were willing to stretch their wage structure to make a new deal happen, the gap between their upper limit and what Clarke will now be earning is absolutely vast. They also did not feel it realistic to stand in the way of Clarke and the Premier League again, having turned down multiple bids from Burnley last summer. There is no acrimony and Clarke loved it at Sunderland, but he wants to test himself in the Premier League and is thought to have been encouraged both by Ipswich Town’s transfer business and impressed with Kieran McKenna’s style of play.

After this window, Clarke’s value would have started to depreciate as his contract wound down and Sunderland’s decision is rooted in the belief that this is the strongest deal they will get. The question that will linger is whether they could have kept him for another campaign, and cashed in next summer if they did not win promotion. They might not have landed this level of fee, but he would surely have still commanded enough to allow for reinvestment? Sunderland appear to think not. That this leaves a major gap in the attacking armoury at Régis Le Bris disposal for the current campaign is beyond debate.

How fans view this deal will to a large extent depend on what happens next. It has long been understood and accepted that players will leave for the top tier along the way, the key being that the funds generated ultimately move the squad closer to being ready to win promotion. At this point, that has not really happened with the funds from the Stewart deal. This time, that process has begun with a raft of contract renewals, as well as the arrivals of Alan Browne and Ian Poveda amid Championship competition. Wilson Isidor has also arrived from Zenit St Petersburg, a player comfortable either through the middle or off the left. All of that will clearly not be enough to replace Clarke and there appears to be a recognition behind the scenes that this is the case. Romaine Mundle has shown real promise and was signed to play (otherwise, why other?), but it would be unfair to suddenly thrust the mantle of Clarke’s successor on his shoulder - that’s a burden that needs to be shared.

Sunderland may not replace Clarke directly, but another couple of forward additions should happen before the end of the window. Alexandre Mendy remains very much a target, even as the impasse between the two clubs continues. A deal was broadly agreed before a takeover at SM Caen and the new regime are yet to sanction his departure. Hope remains a compromise will be found, but it is not certain. Red Bull Salzburg striker Roko Simic has also held talks with the Black Cats hierarchy, and is one of the options that Sunderland could now look to move forward with. Should two strikers arrive to support Eliezer Mayenda, logic from the outside would suggest they may not add a winger as well. If a strong wide option emerges, they may only sign one centre forward. 

Above all else, the feeling on Wearside will be one of sadness. Clarke became a player who had become a total joy to watch, and inspired belief already this season that there may be a realistic hope of a push towards the Premier League. Without him, there is talent in the squad but serious question marks as to whether there are the goals required for a top-six push. There are seven days to address that. 

Clarke’s Sunderland career is ultimately a spectacular success, an initial outlay of around £700,000 multiplied by over 20 in just two seasons. It’s a ringing endorsement of the club’s model in many ways but that matters to supporters only if it serves the end goal: To get this proud club back to the Premier League. That is where this deal will truly be judged. The fear is that Sunderland have rushed into losing a player that could have taken them back to the top, and the onus in the final days of the window is to address what has been lost.