The worrying stats trend that lies at the heart of Sunderland's recent slump in form
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The numbers don’t always tell the whole story, but in this instance they do offer a pretty decent synopsis. On Tuesday evening, Sunderland left it late to salvage a point in the dying embers of a flatly underwhelming showing against Bristol City at the Stadium of Light. In doing so, they ensured that last weekend’s tight win over Stoke City remains their only victory since the beginning of November - a run of eight outings.
The reasons for the Black Cats slump in form and slip from the summit of the Championship table are multi-faceted - injury misfortune, accumulating fatigue, and the general rigours of an unforgiving and unusually competitive division have all likely played their part to some extent - but it is worth noting that as their purple patch has dried up, so too has the clinical streak that hallmarked their stunning start to the season.
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Hide AdIf we take the 0-0 stalemate with QPR - the first dropped points in this eight-game stretch - as a watershed moment in Sunderland’s efforts under Regis Le Bris, there is a stark contrast between their output before that match and what has followed in the time since.
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Over the course of their first dozen Championship outings this season, the Black Cats matched or outperformed their xG on all but one occasion. With the exception of an away win over Luton Town in October, during which they scored twice from an xG of 0.7, Le Bris’ men consistently put the ball in the back of the net more than they were reasonably supposed to as they stormed to the top of the table.
Since (and including) QPR, however, that trend has been flipped almost entirely on its head. In six out of eight contests, Sunderland have fallen statistically short in front of goal. Indeed, the only instance in which they have outperformed their xG was the 2-2 draw against Coventry City last month. The only other exception came a fortnight later, when they secured a 1-1 draw with Millwall from an exact xG of 1.0. Even in victory against Stoke, the Black Cats ultimately undersold themselves, scoring twice from an xG of 2.4.
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Hide AdSome examples have been more glaring than others. The recent 1-0 defeat to fellow promotion hopefuls Sheffield United, for instance, saw Le Bris’ men squander an xG of 1.7, while Tuesday’s draw with Bristol City saw them score once from an xG of 1.5 - although even that should have been enough to see off a visiting side who themselves could only muster an xG of 0.5.
And even if you don’t believe in the counterfactual number-crunching of xG, there are other, simpler signifiers that make for difficult reading. In their last eight matches, Sunderland have scored just six goals. Over the course of those same outings, they have taken a total of 115 shots. Whichever way you look at it, those figures hint at an inescapable wastefulness. Since the beginning of November, the Black Cats goals per game average has dropped from 1.9 to 0.75. That has to be a concern.
None of this is to say that the sole problem is a cohort of misfiring strikers or a simple inability to put the ball in the back of the net, of course. As the season has progressed and opponents have become wiser to Sunderland’s ploys, Le Bris has found himself pitting his wits against more and more rivals who are intent on setting up in a low block designed to stifle his side and frustrate their attacking endeavours. There are other mitigating factors to consider too; world class saves from goalkeepers playing out of their proverbial skins and ill-timed missed penalties among them.
But if Sunderland are serious about sustaining a promotion charge this season, then they need to find a way of remedying a run of form that has led to them taking just nine points from an available 24 since the beginning of last month. It may sound obvious, but fixing their problems in front of goal would be a very good place to start.
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