The stats that prove whether Sunderland should sign Tom Cannon or Ben Brereton Diaz this January

Sunderland are in the market to sign a striker this January transfer window. In other news, water is wet.

It is hard to recall the last time that the Black Cats weren’t reportedly looking to hone and sharpen the point of their attack, but now, with promotion dangling tantalisingly before them, the need to guarantee goals feels greater than ever.

Wilson Isidor, tricky start to December aside, has led the line admirably this season, and in recent weeks, Eliezer Mayenda has looked every inch the willing accomplice, but beyond that duo, options are thin on the ground. Summer signing Ahmed Abdullahi is still yet to make his debut in red and white, while Aaron Connolly, parachuted in as a free agent just four months ago, is already the subject of gathering exit speculation.

A centre-forward is, therefore, an absolute must in the eyes of many on Wearside this month, and in recent days, a couple of names have started to circulate with increasing ferocity. One is Tom Cannon, the Stoke City loanee owned by Leicester City who has already scored against Sunderland twice this season. The other is Ben Brereton Diaz, a fringe player at Southampton these days, who is yet to find the back of the net in the top flight this term, but who has torn the Championship apart in years gone by.

The Echo has launched a new WhatsApp SAFC Channel to bring the latest news, analysis and team & injury updates direct to your phone. Simply click this link to join our SAFC WhatsApp channel.

Both are understood to be firmly on the radar at the Stadium of Light - and, rather inconveniently, at Bramall Lane too - and both have been earmarked as the kind of instant impact acquisition capable of propelling Sunderland towards the Premier League over the coming months.

Presumably, of course, the Black Cats will only sign one, if either, and on that basis, it is worth posing the question as to who would be the more effective option. With that in mind, we turn to Wyscout, the stats database to end all stats databases, and more specifically, a direct comparison between Cannon’s output this season and Brereton Diaz’s in 2022/23 - the last time he had an extended run playing as a centre-forward in the Championship, with Blackburn Rovers.

The first thing that jumps off the page is that Cannon is a notably more prolific central striking option than his Chilean counterpart. So far this season, the 22-year-old has averaged 0.42 goals per 90 minutes, compared to Brereton Diaz’s return of 0.14 a couple of seasons ago. It is perhaps worth noting too, that Cannon is marginally more efficient in his finishing, outperforming his xG by 0.02 per match, compared to Brereton Diaz, who under-performs by 0.01. Elsewhere, Cannon outstrips the Southampton forward’s shooting accuracy by 16.9%, as well as averaging 0.45 more shots on goal per 90 minutes.

The Stoke loanee doesn’t necessarily have things all his own way, however. While his finishing may put Brereton Diaz to shame somewhat, there are plenty of other aspects of the 25-year-old’s game in which he undoubtedly shines brighter. Dribbles per game? The former Blackburn star wins out. Progressive runs? He dwarfs Cannon’s average by a ratio of almost three to one. Touches in the opposition box? Offensive duels contested and won? Shot assists for those around him? Brereton Diaz is comfortably superior in every category.

Now, at this stage, you’re probably thinking that the choice is clear; if you want a goalscorer, you go and battle Sheffield United for Cannon; if you want a more holistically creative, mobile option, you go and battle Sheffield United for Brereton Diaz. Dealer’s - or rather, Kristjaan Speakman’s - choice.

But it’s not that simple. Because, you see, the reality is that if Sunderland are to go out and drop a hefty chunk of cash - whether that be as a loan fee, an option-to-buy clause, or a permanent agreement - on an attacker this winter, then they surely want him to be able to come in and immediately represent an improvement on what they have at their disposal already. And that is where Eliezer Mayenda re-enters the fray.

You see, the Spaniard may have been maligned by many on Wearside at various points this season, but the stats would suggest that he is currently performing at a level which matches - and in some cases, eclipses - both Cannon and Brereton Diaz. His goals per 90 minutes average while playing as a centre-forward, for instance, has been just 0.01 worse than Cannon’s this term, while having more shots on goal per game and recording an accuracy rate that is 5.5% higher.

On the other side of the fence, he is registering 0.9 more dribbles per outing than Brereton Diaz did a couple of years back, and has a completion rate that is some 9.6% better. As for the other stuff - the offensive duels contested and won, the touches in the opposition box? Mayenda edges those too. In fact, the only areas in which Brereton Diaz looks truly superior are shot assists and progressive runs. Hardly disastrous.

All of this is to say that while Sunderland do indeed need a striker this month, what they really, really need is a striker who can ease the burden on the shoulders of main man Wilson Isidor. If Cannon and Brereton Diaz are not even surpassing the man who is currently his sidekick, then what are the chances of either one being the right signing to fulfil that task?

That’s not to say that Sunderland should down tools and abandon their respective pursuits of either player, or that either one wouldn’t go on to be a success on Wearside if they did arrive, but at the very least, it is enough to suggest that the Black Cats should be considering other options as well.