The stats that explain why Wolves star could be ideal Jobe Bellingham replacement for Sunderland

The key to Sunderland’s much-heralded, oft-scrutinised recruitment model is succession. It is perfectly permissible to sell a Jack Clarke, for instance, if you have a Romaine Mundle - or even a Tommy Watson - waiting in the wings.

But you suspect that the Black Cats’ spreadsheets and databases may be put through a number of particularly strenuous tests this summer - especially if they fail to secure promotion to the Premier League. Already the usual cavalcade of heavyweights are said to be circling like hyenas around the best and brightest in Regis Le Bris’ dressing room; the likes of Chris Rigg, Dan Neil, Anthony Patterson, Trai Hume, and perhaps none more so than Jobe Bellingham.

In recent months, the teenage midfielder has established himself as a key presence in Sunderland’s engine room - and their promotion hopes writ large. At the time of writing, they are still yet to win a game of football without him in the starting XI this season, and if you require any further evidence as to his significance in Le Bris’ plans, you need only look at the relative flimsiness and lethargy with which his side met Watford’s bruising challenge at the weekend.

To that end, Bellingham’s obvious influence has been enough to attract the attention of a number of illustrious suitors, with the likes of Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal, and Manchester United all linked in recent weeks - and several more lurking with intent on the periphery.

And if reports are to be believed, the Black Cats are already preparing for life without the starlet. According to a recent update on the matter, Wolves midfielder Tommy Doyle has been identified as one potential replacement for Bellingham, with suggestions that he could be parachuted into the Stadium of Light as soon as this summer.

But to what extent would he be a suitable alternative? Well, first and foremost, there’s no doubting that the 23-year-old is a talent. A Premier League regular who came of age in Manchester City’s stacked academy system, he boasts pedigree in abundance, and has already helped one side to promotion from the Championship having featured prominently during a loan spell at Sheffield United over the course of the 2022/23 campaign.

At first glance, then, Doyle seems like a sensible option - but is he a good fit? After all, replacing Bellingham, if and when the time comes, will be no mean feat. The 19-year-old has rapidly developed into well-rounded and largely irrepressible figure in the heart of midfield - combative, creative, and astute in equal measure. That being said, delving into the stats would seem to suggest that Doyle is more than capable of offering something worthwhile to the Black Cats.

If we take this season alone, the Wolves midfielder has averaged 0.23 more interceptions per 90 minutes than Bellingham, according to Wyscout, as well as completing 1.91 more ball recoveries, with 16.7% more of his recoveries coming in the opposition half. Elsewhere, Doyle contests 1.28 more defensive duels and loses possession 0.36 times fewer - all while playing a division above the Sunderland sensation.

And those impressive figures are replicated in other areas too. Doyle, for instance, makes nearly twice as many passes into the final third and the penalty area as Bellingham per 90 minutes, as well as being 12.9% more accurate with his attempted through balls. In terms of long passing, he makes eight to the teenager’s 1.66 per outing, with a 13.3% higher success rate, and while Bellingham may boast a total pass completion rate that is 1.9% better than Doyle’s, that discrepancy is negated somewhat by the fact that the Wolves man makes 21.33 more passes per 90 minutes.

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In fact, the only part of his game in which Doyle noticeably trails Bellingham is his attacking output. He may average slightly higher number of shots on target and shot assists, but he also records fewer successful dribbles, fewer touches in the opposition box, fewer progressive runs, and nearly a third as many offensive duels contested. Given how important Bellingham’s ability to drive Sunderland forward with the ball at his feet has been this season, that isn’t ideal - although the extent to which the Black Cats’ recruitment team see it as a deal-breaker is something only they will know for certain.

All of this is to say that while losing Bellingham would, on first instinct, feel like a hammer blow, there are players out there who could go at least some of the way towards easing the pain of his departure. Maybe Doyle would be one of them and maybe he wouldn’t. At the very least, the stats would suggest that Sunderland would be well-advised to consider him.

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