The encouraging match stats that should give Sunderland confidence ahead of Cardiff City clash

Sunderland have come a long way since the Regis Le Bris era got underway with a 2-0 win at Cardiff City on the opening day of the Championship season.

Goals from Luke O’Nien and Jack Clarke helped the former Lorient boss claim all three points on his Championship managerial debut and set the tone for what has been a season of unquestionable progress for his side. Since the victory in Wales, the Black Cats have lost just six of their 35 league games so far this season and that tally is only bettered by fellow promotion contenders Leeds United, Sheffield United and Burnley.

Saturday’s reverse fixture with Cardiff does offer an opportunity to assess the merits of a season that began with intrigue and mystery over the appointment of Le Bris - but is now heading into its final stages with Sunderland still very much in the battle for promotion into the Premier League. Should the Black Cats complete a league double over their visitors and extend a record of just one defeat in 17 home league games this season, they could move to within five points of the automatic promotion places if results elsewhere go their way.

Their chances of doing so are boosted by the fact they face a Cardiff side that have won just one of their 17 away league games during the campaign and that solitary victory came back in late October as Callum Robinson netted twice in a 2-1 win at Watford. However, those basic stats are not the only indicators as to why Sunderland should go into Saturday’s clash with such high hopes over returning to winning on home soil and boosting their hopes of ending their absence from the Premier League.

Goals win games!

As it stands, Sunderland can boast the fourth best goalscoring record in the Championship with 52 goals in 35 league games so far this season. Although that is some way short of Leeds United’s incredible total of 72, Sunderland’s tally is just shy of Norwich City’s 56 and Middlesbrough’s 55. There is a contrast with their visitors, with the Bluebirds travelling to Wearside with just 38 goals in 35 games during the season and they also average just a goal-per-game in their 17 away games. Sunderland’s average goals-per-game at the Stadium of Light stands at just over 1.6.

Retaining possession

One of the key aspects of Sunderland under Le Bris has been their ability to retain possession and produce fast-paced counter-attacks that have caught out their opponents. Although there is little to choose between the Black Cats and Cardiff when it comes to average percentage of possession and average passing accuracy, it is Le Bris’s side that come out on top in both metrics. Sunderland’s average possession and average passing accuracy stand at 48.5% and 81.9% respectively compared to Cardiff’s 46.5% and 78.5%.

Hit the target!

It is perhaps not a surprise given their higher amount of possession - but Sunderland also average more shots on goal than Saturday’s visitors. The Black Cats have taken an average of 13.3 shots per game (the third highest in the Championship) compared to Cardiff’s 11.9. However, there is little to choose between the two sides when it comes to average shots on target as the Black Cats 4.5 sits narrowly above Cardiff’s 4.3. Both sides are ranked amongst the best dribblers in the Championship, with Sunderland averaging a divisional best 8.7 successful dribbles compared to Cardiff’s 7.3.

A statistician’s favourite

Stats are everywhere in football these days and one of the most popular statistics comes in the form of xG (expected goals). Using this metric across the season also points in the favour of Le Bris’ side, who have a seasonal xG of 53.48 (compared to their goal tally of 49). Cardiff’s xG across the season comes in at just 39.51, compared to their actual goal tally of 36. As ever, the only statistic that will really matter when the full-time whistle is blown at the Stadium of Light on Saturday will be the scoreline - but the statistics seem to back up the fact Sunderland are strong favourites to take all three points.

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