The overwhelming evidence Sunderland are trending in the right direction despite modest points haul

Ahead of the new Premier League season, the debate around Sunderland’s prospects generally centred around one of two schools of thought.

The first was that Sunderland were prime candidates to suffer from ‘second-season syndrome’, having overperformed against their performance data for much of last season and with the additional European fixtures to contend with this time around. The second, from those who had watched the team’s progress more closely, noted that the side and individuals within it had developed significantly and that the team that surged to seventh in the final weeks of the campaign was a very different proposition to that which had begun the season.

Five games in, Sunderland's modest points haul and position in the table will no doubt offer encouragement to those predicting a tough season for Régis Le Bris’s side. Yet when you scratch beneath the surface, there are reasons for optimism and clear evidence that this is a side improving rather than regressing. Let us explain….

The attacking improvements

Sunderland’s success at the beginning of last season was a masterful feat of coaching given the scale of turnover in the playing squad over the summer. The Black Cats got their approach exactly right, knowing that if they tried to dominate the ball early on they would be picked off as so many newly-promoted sides had been in years previous. While they pressed high in phases of the game, generally they sat off and recruited players capable of defending their box well and suffering for long spells out of possession. It was the right approach, but probably not one capable of delivering long-term success.

In the final months of the season, Le Bris began to evolve the side tactically and their attacking output from open play improved significantly. That trend has continued into this campaign, even if the results and to a certain extent the goals have not yet followed. According to Opta data, Sunderland are second in the Premier League for big chances created, and top for big chances missed. Even if we acknowledge that they are the only team in the division so far to be awarded two penalties and adjust the data accordingly, the signs are promising. They are fifth in the division for non-penalty XG generated, ninth for shots on target and tenth for touches in the opposition box. They have struck the woodwork five times, second only to Manchester United.

Other data indicates the development of the side, and the success generally Le Bris is enjoying in building a more-round side. So far this season they rank fifth in the entire division for PPDA, a pressing metric that establishes how quickly a team engages when the opposition has the ball. That development to being a more proactive side is also reflected in the fact that they sit just outside the top ten for high turnovers. Though the game ultimately ended in frustration, that Sunderland were able to go to Man City and score three times and generate such a high XG will underline the feeling behind the scenes that this is a team trending in the right direction.

By far Sunderland’s poorest performance so far in an attacking sense came on opening day at Ipswich Town, and it is perhaps little surprise that they are improving as a squad disrupted by the World Cup plays together more and sharpens up. In truth, the three-week break probably hasn’t come at a great time for a side hitting their stride even in back-to-back league defeats.

The defensive numbers and why context is key

Of course, getting better going forward is no use if it leads to a big drop off at the other end. So is that happening with Sunderland this year? Well, maybe.

Sunderland sit 13th for XG against in the opening five games of the season, and one worrying stat is that their average XG of each shot conceded is the second highest in the league to date. This is in stark contrast to last year, where their total XG against was high but the XG for each shot was very low, a reflection of the fact that they were mostly forcing the opposition to shoot from range and into a crowd of committed defenders.

Here context is key, though. Sunderland have had a tough opening run of fixtures, playing against the two top sides in the division and a Brentford side who are exceptional on home turf. They have conceded 10 goals from 8.65 XG, a reflection of the clinical finishing from Man City and Arsenal. Brighton, for example, have conceded just five goals from a slightly higher XG.

Sunderland’s defensive numbers are worse than this time last year, averaging 1.73 against compared to 1.06 in their opening five games after promotion. You could make a strong case, however, that they enjoyed an exceptionally kind schedule last year compared to this time around where they have only played at home twice and with one of those games against Arsenal.

Some of the underlying data isn’t so alarming, they’re conceding roughly the same amount of touches in the opposition box and rank eighth in the division currently on that metric. They’ve also conceded the third fewest shots on target, and are in the top ten for shots faced. They need to cut out some poor mistakes, but they’ve also been on the end of some unusually good finishing from the opposition.

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Why Sunderland are trending in the right direction

Having pointed out so often last season the limitations of using data to assess a team, it’s obviously a little ironic to use it now in a search for positives. Games are won in the penalty boxes, where Sunderland excelled last year and so far haven’t got it right. That needs to change, but it’s also clearly true that they are doing a lot of good things and that right now there is nothing in their performance data to ring alarm bells about a relegation battle.

Opta’s current table for where they would expect results to have panned out based on the data has Sunderland sat in eighth, which is impressive given the fixture schedule. That only tells part of the story, but suggests there remains good reason to think this could be a positive season.

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