Who will Sunderland play in the Championship play-off semi final? All the permutations explained

Bristol City's heavy defeat at Leeds United on Monday night means that there are still two play-off places up for grabs heading into the final day of the Championship season.

From a Sunderland perspective it was also a very significant result as it means that they will not their opponent for the semi final until the conclusion of Saturday's games. Heading into those fixtures, there are still five teams who could finish in fifth position. So what are the permutations and who at this stage are Sunderland most likely to face?

We've set out all the possibilities below, including the percentage chance of Sunderland facing each team according to renowned statisticians Opta....

BRISTOL CITY

The 4-0 defeat to Leeds United weakened Bristol City's position in terms of making the top six not just because they failed to pick up any points but also because it significantly impacted their goal difference. Were they to lose on final day, that could yet prove key.

As it stands, however, Liam Manning's side remain Sunderland's most likely opponent and by some distance. They face a Preston North End side now mired in relegation trouble at home on Saturday and should they win that game, they finish fifth. No other results will matter from a Sunderland perspective.

They will also finish fifth with a draw against Preston in the event that Middlesbrough and Coventry City draw in their final day shootout or Middlesbrough win, and then both Millwall and Blackburn Rovers fail to win their games.

% chance of finishing fifth according to Opta: 64.5%

COVENTRY CITY

Sunderland's deeply indifferent record against Coventry City in recent times mean they are the team many supporters are most keen to avoid in the play-offs. At this stage, there is still a decent chance that proves to be the case. It should be said that Coventry's form is equally poor in recent times, having like Sunderland taken just seven points from seven games since the international break. Still, Frank Lampard's team go into final day with their fate in their own hands as they face Middlesbrough.

If Coventry City win, they will almost certainly finish fifth should Bristol City fail to beat Preston North End. Lampard's side are currently level with Millwall and so in theory, it could transpire that they beat Middlesbrough, Bristol City fail to beat Preston and they still finish sixth. However, that would require Millwall not just win but to overturn Coventry's significant advantage on goal difference, with the Sky Blues currently +4 and Alex Neil's side 0.

% chance of finishing fifth according to Opta: 23.4%

MILLWALL

Alex Neil's side are one of the form teams in the division but face a daunting task on final day as they travel to face a Burnley side still fighting for the Championship title.

A draw could see Millwall gatecrash the top six but from a Sunderland perspective it is highly unlikely to be enough to finish fifth. That's because they have an inferior goal difference to every other team in contention. A draw would take them to 67 points, which would push them ahead of Bristol City only if Liam Manning's side lose heavily against Preston (the Robins have a four-goal advantage on Millwall when it comes to goal difference). A winner in the Coventry City and Middlesbrough game will almost certainly put either above Millwall in the table, as Boro have a ten-goal advantage on Millwall. If Millwall draw and Blackburn Rovers win, Rovers finish above Millwall.

But what if Millwall win? In that case, their route to fifth is clearer. They will finish fifth if Bristol City and Coventry fail to win, or if Bristol City fail to win and Neil’s side win emphatically enough to overturn that four-goal deficit to Coventry. The latter route seems highly unlikely given Burnley's exceptional defensive record, but the former is possible.

% chance of finishing fifth according to Opta: 4%

BLACKBURN ROVERS

A strong run of form, including that 1-0 win over Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, means that Blackburn Rovers could yet secure fifth. It would take an unlikely set of results, but is mathematically possible.

Blackburn Rovers travel to face Sheffield United on Saturday and from a Sunderland perspective, only a win brings Valerien Ismael's side into contention for fifth. A win would take them to 68 points, and would see them finish fifth if Bristol City, Coventry City and Millwall all fail to win their games. Bristol City would also finish on 68 points if they draw with Preston, but Blackburn Rovers have a superior goal difference after Monday’s night game and so in that scenario would finish fifth. Highly unlikely but with those teams facing tricky fixtures, you certainly can't rule it out entirely. Indeed, Opta actually thinks it's slightly more likely than Millwall finishing fifth.

% chance of finishing fifth according to Opta: 4.3%

MIDDLESBROUGH

Sunderland's most unlikely semi final opponent is Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough, with the 0-0 draw with Norwich City last weekend leaving them as the clear outsiders heading into the final day.

The positive for Middlesbrough is they have by a distance the best goal difference heading into final day, their current status of +10 six clear of Bristol City and Coventry, five clear of Blackburn and ten clear of Millwall. To finish fifth, they need to beat Coventry City. They would also neat Bristol City to lose against Preston and for both Millwall and Blackburn Rovers to fail to win. If they win, Bristol City lose, Blackburn fail to win and Millwall draw, they will finish fifth on goal difference.

% chance of finishing fifth according to Opta: 3.8%