Phil Smith's Sunderland AFC verdict: The short and long-term issues that have left play-off push drifting

If Sunderland’s campaign ends outside of the play-off places, and we now have to say that this is probable rather than possible, then it will not be hard to identify the crucial period. 

Three defeats in a row, all to teams in the bottom half of the table and all still very much fighting to try and move clear of the relegation battle, have left Sunderland adrift of the top six and in need of a significant turnaround.

Part of this is a reflection of life in the Championship, the reality being that outside of the teams bolstered by parachute payments there is very little between most and so form can fluctuate wildly. Good decisions, whether it be in the transfer window or in the dugout, can quickly move the dial for a team and so too can those who err find themselves quickly stagnating. We can now say with a large degree of certainty that Sunderland made a major error in their head coach change and regardless of where you stand on Tony Mowbray’s departure itself, what has followed has clearly taken Sunderland backwards.

Confidence appears to have dropped, consistency (of performance, rather than result) has most definitely dropped and the playing identity that looked so firmly embedded now appears confused. So much of this feels self-inflicted, a promising if far from perfect position that has been lost to poor decision making. 

The first half against Swansea City represented a new nadir for a campaign that increasingly feels as if it is drifting, Sunderland exposed completely by an albeit impressive opponent in that phase of the game. Mike Dodds has promised to be bold in his third spell as interim head coach and while few would quibble with his desire to get Sunderland back firmly on the front foot, the end result of a new look system left the team looking as muddled as it ever did in Michael Beale’s short tenure. Dodds fairly countered the issues were as much about mentality and competing physically as they were tactical, but a combination of the two left his side fortunate to only be two behind at the interval. 

While this run of defeats has exposed the faultlines of some of Sunderland’s shorter-term decisions, it’s also the case that it has begun to raise more questions about the broader strategy and particularly the way the squad has been overhauled over the last couple of transfer windows.

Any team and any head coach at this level would certainly struggle to produce their best with an injury list that includes players such as Jack Clarke, Patrick Roberts, Aji Alese and Dennis Cirkin but their absence has exposed a lack of depth in the squad. There are a number of exciting and talented players who could be key figures in the future but who are still for varying reasons currently finding their feet at this level. While some level of dip when those established players are unavailable is inevitable and would be the case for any side, and the system change clearly exacerbated the problem here, at the moment that gap is too significant. 

The struggles in the final third continue, underlined by the fact that Carl Rushworth had so few saves to make even as Sunderland improved considerably and took almost complete control of the contest in the second half. Luke O’Nien’s goal came from a set piece, and Rushworth’s only other notable save came in the final moments of the game when Anthony Patterson was thrown forward in hope of an equaliser. While Nazariy Rusyn’s undoubted application was again well received by the Stadium of Light support, the inability or unwillingness to push for an established striker continues to hamper the Black Cats.

Sunderland won promotion from League one with a squad packed full of exciting young talent, but also with an established core of players who could be counted on to perform consistently. Though Callum Styles arrived with a significant number of EFL games under his belt, Sunderland have broadly doubled down on their policy of signing young, inexperienced players. The fluctuation in performances and results have become more acute as the impact of that has grown, not helped by the clearly destabilising impact of change in the dugout.

It is also true that Amad’s absence continues to cast a long shadow, a player who was so often the difference between closely-matched teams last season. Without him then, perhaps Sunderland would have been just about where they find themselves now. 

Perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to write off the campaign entirely, for this young side have shown a habit of stepping up and finding another level against the best opposition in the division. They beat Leeds and West Brom during Dodds’ previous tenure and before that were superb against Leicester City, sweeping Southampton aside in September. Perhaps that too is a reflection of the makeup of the squad, a young group learning as they go how to find that intensity and consistency when the stakes don’t appear to be so high.

For all the valid criticisms this remains a talented squad capable of matching any side on their day, and so it would be no surprise if they still have something to say in that play-off race. 

Wherever this campaign now heads, however, it is fair to say the first two months of 2024 should lead to some serious reflection for the club’s ownership heading into a summer where the pressure to make the right decisions will be acute. 

Can Sunderland achieve their goal of promotion without a little more flexibility in how they recruit, both in terms of budget and profile? Are the right decisions being made at the right time and for the right reasons when it comes to managerial selection and change? 

An improved second half spared a more intense immediate reaction but the otherwise familiar flaws on show means the questions are only growing. For the first time in a good while, Sunderland’s trajectory does not appear to be curving upwards. To demand patience requires tangible progress, and at this moment there is little of that. For the short term, a defining week of fixtures lies ahead.