The interesting fixture analysis that shows why Sunderland's play-off hopes remain alive

And yet. Through a combination of middling form from the teams above them, and a young, injury-hit squad's ability to dig out just enough results along the way, this season isn't quite done.

Sunderland have a four-point gap to overcome and perhaps more significantly, four teams they have to get past if they are to make their play-off dream become reality.

It's an outside chance, but a chance nonetheless and particularly because comparatively speaking, their run-in looks a little kinder than many of their rivals.

Analysis by soccerstats.com show that only Millwall and Watford theoretically have a kinder run-in than Sunderland, when taking into account the PPG of the contender's remaining opponents, weighted to take into account home and away form.

Watford, two points behind the Black Cats in the table, are in poor form under Chris Wilder and almost certainly need to win their upcoming home games against Bristol City and Cardiff City to stay in the race. Millwall have not scored in four and have a huge tie against Preston North End this weekend, but if they can come through that unscathed their fixtures give them a big chance of holding onto their top six place.

An outstanding Easter weekend has catapulted Preston into contention, with Everton loanee Tom Cannon one of the division's in-form players. To get over the line, though, they will have to come through a challenging schedule that sees them play that game against Millwall, travel to Swansea City and Sheffield United, as well as playing Blackburn Rovers and then Mowbray's Sunderland at home. Rovers have the advantage of a game-in-hand over most other teams and so remain very firmly in the race, but face a similarly daunting schedule including games against Coventry City, Luton Town and Burnley.

Slightly kinder run-ins for Coventry City and Norwich City mean they remain firm contenders, and a game-in-hand for West Brom means they are firmly in contention even though their fixture list is challenging and their recent form poor.

While urging his players to take the season as deep as possible, Mowbray's belief is that in all likelihood there are just too many teams between his side and sixth, and not all of them will fall away. The biggest issue for his side on the pitch is that the theory of a kind fixture list on paper is centred around their two upcoming home games against Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town, both currently teams in the bottom half. That presents an opportunity, and yet Sunderland are acutely aware that their home form is poor and they have struggled to get the balance of the team right in the absence of Ross Stewart and Ellis Simms. With Huddersfield resurgent under Neil Warnock, there are no guarantees that the Black Cats will be able to take it into the last few fixtures against teams around them in the table. Birmingham and Huddersfield will both look to frustrate and play on the break, and of late Mowbray's side have not always had the answer to that strategy.

And yet. Though caution is well advised, Sunderland undoubtedly still have a chance, even if it is a slim one.

The statistics in full

Millwall – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.17

Blackburn Rovers – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.56

Preston North End – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.57

Norwich City – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.33

Coventry City – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.38

Sunderland – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.22

West Bromwich Albion – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.47

Watford – PPG of remaining opponents: 1.21