Sunderland play-off push: What we learned about unlikely top 6 finish after dramatic Hull draw and victory at Cardiff City

Tony Mowbray urged his side to keep the play-off dream alive for supporters as long as they possibly could and the upshot of a frenetic Easter Weekend was that they had done that, just about.
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A remarkable 2,600 had made the trip to Cardiff on Easter Monday and looking across to where they roared at full time, the sense of this being a season of progress was underlined.

The closing stages had perhaps been nervier than they needed to be, Sunderland's inability to make their initial dominance of the game count, allowing the hosts to lay siege for the final 20 minutes. The roar and the applause from the away end was not just because their team had secured three points, but because they again had dug in as a group and found a way to carve out a result in challenging circumstances.

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It felt like a game that summed up exactly why they have kept this unlikely play-off push alive, and why they remain very much the outsiders to go and finish in the top six.

Alex Pritchard and Dennis Cirkin celebrate at the Cardiff City StadiumAlex Pritchard and Dennis Cirkin celebrate at the Cardiff City Stadium
Alex Pritchard and Dennis Cirkin celebrate at the Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff City may for the most part have proven to be obliging opponents but that shouldn't take away from Sunderland again finding a way to overcome their extensive list of injury issues. For this game in particular, Mowbray was facing a tactical dilemma in his defensive ranks. Cardiff have under Sabri Lamouchi reverted to a more direct style, playing into two centre-forwards at the earliest opportunity. Already without Dan Ballard and Aji Alese, two of the defenders best suited to deal with that approach, Mowbray also had to manage the absence of Luke O'Nien.

His only natural central defender was the January addition Joe Anderson, but given that the head coach had previously stressed that the talented youngster needs to work on his physicality in the months ahead, it always felt as if it would be a gamble to select him for a game like this.

Mowbray's solution was smart, shifting Trai Hume infield and moving to a fluid system that was a back four in defence and a back five when building out. Hume was superb, one of his best attributes being his excellent athleticism and ability to leap and win headers that by rights he should lose. Both he and Danny Batth were dominant through the first half, preventing the home side from building any kind of momentum.

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What Tony Mowbray said about Sunderland’s play-off hopes after Cardiff City win
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It was a more even contest in the second half, with the introduction of Kion Etete adding both energy and purpose for the Bluebirds' in the final third, but the visitors were resolute and that lay the platform for a win that even Lamouchi conceded was deserved.

Sunderland's form over the last ten games has at face value been poor, a return of ten points placing them above just four other Championship teams. In the context of their challenging fixture list and even more challenging injury list, though, they have shown a lot of resolve and flexibility to keep the season alive. Particularly after the chastening afternoon against Stoke City, after which it did feel as if things could unravel at speed.

The Easter weekend marked what was on paper at least a kinder run of fixtures, and a return of four points has borne that out to an extent. What the two games probably also showed us is exactly this exciting, uplifting campaign is likely to end with the Black Cats falling just shy of the top six.

They dominated the game in South Wales, and yet came relatively close to being unable to take three points from it. Mowbray's change of shape worked to a large extent in the first half, Lynden Gooch pushing high as a wing-back and combining to often thrilling effect with Amad. Sunderland were a joy to watch right up until they reached the byline or the edge of the area, at which point they invariably had to slow down or come back out again.

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Not for the first time since Ellis Simms was recalled and Ross Stewart injured, their effective build-up was stymied by having no one in the box to hit. They were inches away from scoring one excellent goal when Jack Clarke burst into the six-yard box to head an Alex Pritchard cross home, only for the offside flag to be raised.

For the most part those sorts of runs were few and far between, a natural consequence of operating without a natural number nine.

It's an even bigger problem on home turf, and that's relevant when realistically a points return of six from the next two is an absolute must if any hopes of the top six are to be realised. As Mowbray outlined after the win at Cardiff, his biggest challenge is to get the balance of his side right to ensure they have a threat without being too vulnerable to the counter.

Their home form since Stewart's injury has been poor, and the way Hull City were able to carve out chances in Good Friday's pulsating encounter underlined those issues that won't go away in the coming weeks.

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Sunderland's win at Cardiff mathematically secured their safety, a milestone not to be taken for granted. To pass 60 points, as now seems certain, will make it one of the best seasons produced by a team promoted out of League One in modern Championship history.

And the Black Cats will have done it producing some of the best football they have played for many a year.

These are pretty good times, in short. It's just that it will probably still take an excellent and ambitious summer window, and most likely another one in January, for those top-six dreams to realistically stand a good chance of being realised.