The fascinating stats behind table-topping Sunderland's superb start plus key warning to Régis Le Bris's squad

Nine games, nineteen points. Top of the league. Five clean sheets and still unbeaten at home. Sunderland’s start to the campaign under new head coach Régis Le Bris has been better than even the biggest optimists in the fanbase would have predicted.

After a dismal first half of 2024, Sunderland’s young squad have proven that they can compete with any team at the level and have laid down a strong marker this season that the goal is to push for promotion. 

Just how good is this side, though? This second international break offers a chance to reflect on the campaign so far and dig a little deeper into the performances behind those results, with a now decent sample size to analyse and in search of some broader trends. 

Broadly speaking, Sunderland’s numbers show a side competing with the best in the division in both attack and in defence. Their expected-goals tally, a metric which essentially assesses the likelihood of each shot resulting in a goal, is 12.9 across their first nine games. That is the seventh best tally in the division so far, and reflects the fact that even though they often have less possession than their opponent, Le Bris’s side are having few issues getting in dangerous areas on a consistent basis. 

That is backed up by some of their other key attacking performance metrics. Their tally of 236 touches inside the opposition box is the fourth best in the division, bettered only by Sheffield United, Leeds United and Middlesbrough. Leeds and Middlesbrough, incidentally, are consistently coming out on top on all of these key measurements to underline their threat over the course of the season even if their results have at times been patchy so far. Sunderland’s tally of 19 big chances is the ninth best in the division, but only a little behind West Brom’s 23 which is the fourth best in the league. Similarly, their average of 4.1 shots on target is the 13th best in the league but only a fraction behind Millwall’s 4.4 - the sixth-best in the Championship. Compared to the final few months of last season, there has been a significant improvement in Sunderland’s attacking threat.

Their defensive numbers are similarly competitive, an expected-goals against tally of 10.1 the ninth best in the division. 

So what does these numbers tell us about Sunderland’s promotion hopes? There are two important things to consider here, which better place these numbers into context. The first is to consider how Sunderland’s games so far this season have actually played out. Critical to remember is that they have had a first-half lead in a quite remarkable eight of their nine league games to date. Sunderland’s numbers are therefore inevitably going to be distorted by the fact that the onus has more often than not been on the opposition to chase the game, and so you would expect them to broadly be having more shots and creating more chances. That Sunderland’s numbers are resilient against their rivals despite leading games against teams such as Burnley and Middlesbrough for the vast majority of those contests is impressive. 

Less encouraging is the clear contrast in Sunderland’s first block of fixtures and the second. Across the opening four fixtures, Sunderland produced an excellent expected goals average of 1.54 per game. Their defensive numbers were staggeringly good, conceding an average of just 0.48 expected goals per game despite leading for long periods of each. Since the last international break and the trip to Plymouth, the numbers are not as impressive. Sunderland’s expected goals average was 1.35 across those five fixtures, while their expected goals against average leapt all the way to 1.64. Only in the win against Derby County did Sunderland produce a better expected goals number than their opponent. While not a huge sample size, there are some early indications here that opponents are starting to find ways to create space and therefore good goal scoring opportunities against a defensive structure that functioned remarkably well in the early weeks of the campaign. Responding and adapting to that is going to be a key task for Le Bris in the weeks ahead, particularly away from home, if Sunderland are to maintain their place at the top of the table.

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There is more broadly real cause for optimism for Sunderland moving forward. They have yet to be truly outplayed by an opponent, which the numbers reflect. It’s still early days in terms of Le Bris developing the playing philosophy, and he believes his side will grow more versatile and therefore stronger with time. One thing he hasn’t been able to do yet is make significant changes from the bench, something that has obviously cost them in games such as Plymouth and Watford away. If not for Ilan Meslier’s error, it would have probably cost them against Leeds United. With Aaron Connolly nearing a debut and Wilson Isidor settling into the side, that should begin to change. Most importantly, they are consistently producing strong performances at home and if they can maintain that over the course of the campaign then they will be very close to the top six as a minimum. 

Recent weeks have shown nevertheless that it will not all be plain sailing. The early signs for Le Bris and his side are promising but there is still much to do before they can truly be considered a side who can be expected to last the pace across a 46-game season. 

*All stats courtesy of Opta via the fotmob app