Sunderland xG compared to Premier League rivals ahead of Brighton visit
How do Sunderland's xG numbers stack up against the rest of the Premier League?
Sunderland have enjoyed an excellent season back in the Premier League, but it has undoubtedly been built upon a solid defence.
The Black beat Leeds United 1-0 last week to end a recent winless streak, reaching the 40-point mark after just 29 games. They now find themselves just four points adrift of the top seven and 12 clear of the relegation zone, and can spend the rest of the campaign trying to finish as high up as possible.
Sunderland - who host Brighton this Saturday - have done all that, despite scoring just 30 goals, which is the third-lowest total in the top-flight behind only Nottingham Forest (28) and Wolves (22). That’s because their 34 goals conceded is the fourth-best record in the division and certainly one to be proud of. But what do the xG numbers say about Sunderland’s attacking record? Should Regis Le Bris’ side have done better, or could the picture have been even worse?
Sunderland xG compared to Premier League rivals
- Chelsea - 61.55
- Arsenal - 58.83
- Manchester City - 58.57
- Manchester United - 55.41
- Liverpool - 53.96
- Brentford - 51.31
- Bournemouth - 49.68
- Crystal Palace - 48.64
- Newcastle United - 47.40
- Leeds - 43.83
- Brighton - 42.10
- Aston Villa - 39.01
- Everton - 37.70
- West Ham - 37.63
- Fulham - 36.56
- Nottingham Forest - 35.06
- Tottenham - 34.21
- Sunderland - 30.08
- Wolverhampton Wanderers - 27.92
- Burnley - 27.32
Per Understat, Sunderland’s xG is 30.08, meaning they’ve actually performed perfectly in line with expectation, making that defensive record all the more impressive. Only Wolves (27.92) and Burnley (27.32) have a lower xG value, and the latter have overperformed theirs by 4.68, meaning things could have been even worse for a Clarets side already 19th in the table.
It’s at the back where things are perhaps a little worrying for Sunderland, who have overperformed their xGA by 12.74, which is the highest rate in the Premier League right now. That’s down to a mixture of opposition forwards missing a lot of big chances, but also some unbelievable saves from goalkeeper Robin Roefs, who has been one of the signings of the season. Even so, that leaves little margin for error in the attacking third, and Regis Le Bris believes finding a ‘flow’ in build-up play will be key to improving Sunderland’s goalscoring struggles - something uncomfortably highlighted in the Black Cats’ 1-0 defeat at League One Port Vale in the FA Cup on Sunday.
"We had a good conversation with Granit this week, because he's really experienced," Le Bris said "We spoke about the different areas that we are developing now. So out of possession at Leeds and Bournemouth we were excellent, the way we pressed the opponent, our mid-block was good, our deep block was good. We repeated this season this kind of performance out of possession.
"Our build-up is getting better as well and the progression phase is clear when we have our key players, because it's always connected. But the final attacking third is the most difficult, and here we have good principles with our triangles, our wide triangles, for example, but they haven't played a lot together because we changed often. The triangles on the left, for example, we had Rei sometimes with Enzo and Noah, then Rei and Noah went to AFCON. "So this flow is hard to achieve and when we change everything and often it's hard to find the right balance. It was the same on the right side. We started with Bertrand, a mature player, we had Nordi and we thought we would have Habib, but then Habib was injured. So we didn't have great consistency in those relationships, and that helps. And then our three strikers have different styles of play so we struggled to find consistency as well. It's an ongoing process and we want to get better and find solutions."
On the need for wider attacking improvement, Le Bris added: "It's obviously a concern because we want to improve every area, and this is not the best one for sure.
"But it's not only about the attacking players, it's about the squad. You can score on set-pieces as well and this has not been the case in recent weeks. The midfielders can score because they can shoot from outside the box, for example. It's a full process and it's not only one responsibility of one player, it's about the full squad."