The fascinating stats behind Sunderland’s Premier League struggle so far and how they compare to last season
Sunderland climbed off the foot of the table with their win over Chelsea but remain very much in a relegation battle
Back to the Sunderland of last season, was the general consensus.
With the pressure rising and the Black Cats rooted to the foot of the Premier League table, the 1-0 win over Chelsea represented a very timely return to form for Régis Le Bris’s side. The clean sheet meant it very much followed the template of previous successes, Chelsea dominating the ball but rarely troubling Robin Roefs. Sunderland did not dominate, but were resolute and offered enough of a threat on the break in particular to deserve the win.
Their struggles this season have been obvious, their points haul after ten games ten fewer than this time last year. But is that a fair reflection of their performance level? Here, we take a closer look…
The defensive dip
Sunderland have not been the miserly side that started last season so well, and if there is one clear reason for their struggles it is this. This time last year they had the third best XG- against in the division, but after ten games this time around it is the fifth worst. You might at a glance say that this is typical second-season fare, a team suffering major teething issues as they look to adapt their style and as teams show them more respect. This is true to an extent, with many of Sunderland’s goals conceded a consequence of risks in build-up play that they weren’t taking this year, and yet the stats strongly suggest their fundamental structure is not significantly worse. They have faced 135 shots from the opposition, which is only up six from this time last year. That was the sixth-worst record in the league at the time, whereas this year it is midtable. They have faced 38 shots on target, the seventh-best record in the division, down from 42 after ten games last year. The opposition has had 250 touches in their box, down slightly from 265.
Sunderland have suddenly become a team easy to open up or even to play against; their % of ground duels won has only dropped slightly and they remain one of the best teams in the league on that metric. Aerial duels have been a more obvious issue, a reflection that Nordi Mukiele, Dan Ballard, Brian Brobbey and Thomas Meunier have all been absent at various junctures.
The truly telling statistic is that the average XG of each opposition shot has jumped from 0.09 to 0.12, switching from one of the best in the league on this front to one of the worst. Why? Because they have made too many errors in terrible areas of the pitch, with the opposition scoring a division-high six goals directly from a Sunderland error. Robin Roefs has not had the same impact this time around, and yet the fact that so few goals can be attributed to an obvious error on his part reflects the fact that Sunderland have handed too many clear chances to their opponent.Perhaps that is a result of Sunderland’s underdog spirit and adrenaline as a newly-promoted side dipping a little, making them too casual at times and not defending their box with quite the same vigour. It most definitely is a reflection of the fact that through injury, form and suspension, Le Bris has constantly had to chop and change at the back.
In Sunderland’s three clean sheets this season, Nordi Mukiele has started every one with either Meunier or Trai Hume to his right. If Sunderland can keep key players fit, there’s every reason to think they can build on the platform of the Leeds United and Chelsea games.
When you consider that Sunderland have played seven of the current top nine in the table, and a midtable defence in terms of performance is not a bad place to be. It has to be one of key reasons Sunderland have stood by Le Bris: This is not a side that is fundamentally broken. One further very important distinction to make: this time last year seven of their ten opponents sat in the bottom half.
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In attack and the picture as a whole
In Opta’s ‘expected’ table based on performance data, Sunderland sit seventh. The key factor for their underperformance is that they have not been anywhere near clinical enough in front of goal, scoring just eight times from an XG of 15.59.
These stats do need to be placed in their proper context, though, and can only offer us a degree of comfort. Part of the reason that Sunderland’s XG is the sixth best in the league is that they have trailed for large parts of the majority of their game, and so the onus has been on them to make the running. Their numbers are also inflated by the four penalties they have won, two more than any other side in the league. Even so, there is clear improvement in their attacking threat from last season. In the bottom three on just about every attacking metric this time a year ago, now they sit in midtable pretty much across the board. Shots and shots on target are up, as are touches in the opposition box (and quite considerably).
One remarkable statistic compared to this time a year ago is that set pieces now account for just 19.3% of their XG, down from a division-high 43.95%. Is this a sign of a team improving in open play, or one that has lost a very clear edge it once had? You can read it either way.
Sunderland’s XG underperformance more broadly has to be considered a concern because their squad does not boast a lot of players with strong historic goalscoring records, which suggests the current state of play might be a trend rather than a fluke.
So have Sunderland’s performances been much worse than when they started so well last time out? No. Have they deserved a few more points? Absolutely. It’s a key reason to believe things will turn over time after that Chelsea win, and yet some clear issues are abundantly clear. Sunderland struggle without key players on the pitch, and they have to show the intensity of Sunday’s performance more consistently as they aren’t good enough to thrive without it.