Phil Smith: My Premier League predictions and how I think Sunderland will fare

Maybe cautious optimism would be the best way to describe the mood around Sunderland ahead of the new Premier League season.

There’s no doubt that this is a city and a fanbase bullish about the trajectory both of its team and its club more generally, back in the big time after eight long and often very painful years away. The club’s recruitment drive has been more ambitious and gone further than anyone had anticipated, over £120 million spent and still a little left to do.

Sunderland will unsurprisingly be dismissed as relegation fodder by most neutrals, with sides promoted from the Championship increasingly finding the odds stacked firmly against them. Then again, few would have anticipated at the start of the summer that Granit Xhaka would be leading Sunderland out on opening day.

There are reasons to be optimistic about Sunderland and Xhaka is only one of them. Sunderland’s prudent financial approach during their Championship spell, while often divisive and frustrating at the times, has borne fruit this summer. They have had the financial headroom to invest heavily in the squad and they have also used their connections in the European market to pull off deals that would in all likelihood be out of range for most promoted clubs. They have invested in young talent again but this time it’s invariably in players who already have a decent level of experience in top European leagues. The Premier League is another step up and a big one, but many of these players have now shown they can cope with the intensity and athleticism required. Add that to a core of players who thrived in recent seasons and are determined to show they can keep pace with the club’s growth, and you have the potential for a squad that can catch teams off guard.

Tactical flexibility works in Sunderland’s favour, too. This is not a team used to dominating possession, who might struggle with the shock of having to defend for long periods without the ball. That was often when Sunderland were at their best last season, and their recruitment has clearly been geared to adding players who can succeed in a counterattacking style. Régis Le Bris demonstrated his pragmatism on countless occasions last season, and will be required to do so again this time around.

In short, there are many good reasons to think that this Sunderland side can be competitive this season and they look stronger on the eve of the season than anyone could have imagined in the days after that play-off final win, when the heady optimism was undercut slightly by the daunting challenge ahead.

Can you say, for all that, that Sunderland are favourites to stay up? Probably not. The brutal reality is that to survive you have to finish above three teams and it’s sobering to note that last season Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United finished 18th and 16th respectively. That’s highly unlikely to happen again, but it also wasn’t entirely a fluke. The biggest difference between the Premier League from Sunderland’s last stint there is that the midtable clubs have grown stronger and smarter than ever before. You take a look through the group of teams that Sunderland will need to edge ahead of and it isn’t easy to establish a sure candidate to struggle.

Were it any other club you might look at Brentford’s summer, losing most of their established coaching team and some key players, and fear the worst. Because it’s Brentford, at the back of your mind you think they will probably have a sound plan to respond. Wolves started last season very sluggishly and have lost key players, so much will depend on how their new arrivals fare. West Ham? Everton? The former weren’t great last season but still have Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá… Everton’s squad looked threadbare not so long ago but signing Jack Grealish looks like something of a statement of intent for the weeks ahead. It’s eminently possible that Sunderland could compete well over 38 games and still fall short.

None of that should alter the mood of positivity on Wearside, though. Tommy Watson’s strike at Wembley has transformed the club’s short, medium and long-term future. A generation of fans will watch Premier League football in their city for the first time and for those longer in the tooth, they can relish the return of the good times and one of the most exciting squads Sunderland have built in recent memory.

Kick off on Saturday will be an emotional moment, the start of a new chapter that many fans wondered if they’d ever see during those long years in the wilderness.

Phil’s Premier League predictions

Title winner: Arsenal

Champions League places: Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle United

Relegated: Burnley, Leeds United, Brentford

Sunderland prediction: 17th. If you can’t be optimistic on the eve of the season, when can you? There’s no doubt that this is going to be a long, tough campaign and there are going to be plenty of low points along the way. I’m genuinely enthused by how Sunderland have approached the window, though, adding some top-level experience but sticking to their philosophy of building a young squad with athleticism and everything to prove. Why can’t they be the team to buck the recent trend for promoted teams? I feel far more optimistic than I did after the Wembley win, when I felt excited but fearful that it would be a long season.

Sunderland signing of the summer: It will obviously be Granit Xhaka, but I’m backing Noah Sadiki to establish himself as a firm fan favourite. He covers so much ground every week and the passion with which he’s approached pre-season fixtures makes me think a full Stadium of Light is going to absolutely love him.

Sunderland player to watch: Sunderland will do a lot of defending this year and so my feeling is that having had a full pre-season, Dan Ballard is going to catch the eye. His defensive attributes are top drawer and I think it’s gone a little under the radar just how much he’s improved his composure in possession.

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