Why Ellis Simms won't be making Sunderland return and where it leaves striker search

After watching Ross Stewart suffer a major achilles injury, Tony Mowbray said the return of Ellis Simms would be ‘pretty appropriate’ in the closing stages of the January window.

And Sunderland still had some cause to hope, too. Mowbray spoke to Sean Dyche and the message seemed pretty clear, if Everton could sign a striker then Simms would be clear to return.

They had missed out on Arnaut Danjuma to Spurs at the very last minute and were left unable to land a viable alternative. Danjuma barely kicked a ball and though Simms’ late equaliser at Stamford Bridge was a huge moment in his career and his team’s season, the opportunities were predictably limited. It was a transfer chain that in the end benefited basically no one involved: sometimes this is a maddening sport to observe.

The return of Simms would have been pretty appropriate this summer, too, it is fair to say. Ross Stewart is not expected to be fit for the start of the new campaign and just as it was with Joe Gelhardt, asking Hemir to carry the striking burden on his own will be too great a gamble. Hemir is far more of an orthodox number nine than Gelhardt but he will need time to adjust to a new league, where the level of physicality in particular will be dramatically different to what he is used to. He most certainly has the attributes to get to grips with that, but it is likely to take a bit of time.

With Stewart’s long-term future still at this stage uncertain, the argument for adding another striker to the ranks is an obvious one. With Simms entering the last year of his deal at Everton, there looked initially to be a chance of a deal to be done for Sunderland.

It was one that pretty quickly moved out of Sunderland’s range, though.

Sunderland are more than prepared to invest in young talent, and were in the top six for net spend on fees last summer. They will more than likely be there again this summer, with all four of their additions so far commanding a significant fee.

All the same, the numbers with Simms appeared quickly to move into realms well beyond anything that has been spent by the Black Cats.

Everton’s valuation of £7 - £10 million looked hugely optimistic given Simms’ contractual status but ultimately it was quickly vindicated: there were an unusual amount of Championship clubs with those kinds of funds to spend on a striker.

Ipswich Town were the initial frontrunners, with their 2021 takeover immediately making them one of the most ambitious clubs outside of the Premier League. When they moved for Nathan Broadhead last January, the numbers were well in excess of those which had been agreed for the striker to move to Wearside just months earlier. He had of course signed a new contract at Everton in between, but it underlines why they are very different to most sides coming up to League One.

Even Ipswich, though, wouldn’t hit Everton’s valuation. That left Coventry City and Swansea City as the most likely destinations, as the anticipated sales of Viktor Gyokeres and Joel Piroe meant they could sign Simms and still bank cash.

With Piroe’s future at this stage still uncertain and Gyokeres on the brink of a £20 million move to Sporting Lisbon, Coventry had a clear run.

The initial fee will be more modest than the headline figure, realised in full only if Simms is successful into the future. It’s good business, and most importantly it comes with significantly less risk than it would have done for Sunderland. An unsuccessful investment of that size can affect your position for countless windows into the future.

What Coventry have done is a good outline of what Sunderland would like to do in future. Plan A is emphatically to build a team to get promoted. But to do so in a way that means if you don’t, and football is often a game of uncontrollable variables, you will be placed when the top-tier clubs come calling. That money then opens up targets previously out of range, as it has for Coventry and Simms. 

The figures involved mean Sunderland have almost certainly been looking at other options. Tony Mowbray made clear that he still saw the position as a priority last week and when it was put to Kristjaan Speakman at the recent fixture release breakfast that another was needed, his wry smile suggested he didn’t disagree.

Stewart, of course, remains a key part of the puzzle. Negotiations have been ongoing for well over a year now and that brings with it an obvious concern, but Speakman continues to insist that there is a willingness on both sides to strike a deal. He has referenced the recent agreement with Dennis Cirkin as cause for optimism, as they too were negotiations that spanned months before eventually reaching a successful resolution.

Any change in Stewart’s situation is thought to be unlikely until he is fit again, but gaining certainty over his future remains just about the most important deal Sunderland could strike this summer. 

Simms’ Coventry City switch is the latest example, and there have been plenty, highlighting why signing strikers is by some distance the toughest task for a club striving for sustainability. 

Sunderland believe landing Hemir, who could have stayed at Benfica, could prove to be a real coup but there remains much work to do.