Sunderland AFC transfers: Why striker search is so difficult and what the club actually want

Another transfer window at Sunderland dominated by the pursuit of striking additions.

It has been one of the key talking points on Wearside for a protracted period and so with that in mind, it felt timely to take a closer look at what Sunderland are actually trying to achieve, and what the key obstacles they face are....

What do Sunderland actually want in a striker?

Would it be a little flippant to say, lots of Ross Stewarts?

Probably a little, but it does also help get to the heart of what Sunderland want in a striker and why, very obviously, it’s not always easy to find.

There was some consternation in February when, reflecting on the failure to find a replacement for Stewart after his achilles injury at Fulham, Speakman said that a traditional number nine isn’t really a part of Sunderland’s set-up. Which seems contradictory, when you consider the immense success Stewart has had: every inch a number nine.

The point the Sporting director was making, though, was that the way Sunderland play means the role of the striker isn’t just about what they produce in the penalty box. There are huge physical demands in terms of leading the team’s pressing and this is relevant at the moment because while Hemir has the capability and aptitude to do it, it’s a massive step up form what he has been used to at Benfica B. Sunderland believe their pressing is key to creating chances and winning games - they almost overwhelmed Ipswich Town on Sunday and Kieran McKenna mentioned this in his post-match press conference. Tony Mowbray has spoken regularly through pre season about the demands this places on Hemir and the danger of pushing him too much as a result, hence why at the moment he’s unlikely to complete ninety minutes too often.

In such a technically gifted team, the striker obviously also has to be good enough to link up with those around him with ball at feet.

The experience of the last twelve months has of course shown the importance of having a focal point of sorts up front, whether that be with back to goal or running in behind. With Sunderland not having the option to play long, it was too easy for teams to come to the Stadium of Light and sit off Sunderland’s back four. They allowed them to have the ball knowing their only option was to play a risky pass into midfield, at which point they would press aggressively and look to break. 

So there is an understanding that a natural striker is vital both to give Mowbray variety and also, very obviously, to get in the six-yard box and convert chances. Why they have sometimes preferred to leave themselves light on numbers rather than just bring in a free agent at the end of the window, for example, is because they feel a player who lacks the mobility to press and the technical ability to create would detract from and stifle the team’s best qualities more significantly than what they would offer by holding the ball up. This is what Speakman means when he says the team don’t play with what we might consider a ‘traditional’ target forward.

In this context Stewart remains a genuinely sensational pick up, one of Sunderland’s best ever transfers.

Joe Gelhardt’s time leading the line was fascinating because while he lacked that poacher’s instinct, there’s no doubt his athleticism and all-round ability was massive in some of Sunderland’s key results en route to the play-offs.  The ideal would have been to bounce him off Stewart, and that's clearly a big part of the thinking in signing Bradley Dack. Mowbray is already talking enthusiastically about playing the two together.

How many strikers would they ideally have competing at once?

Another point of contention, given that Sunderland regularly operate with a much smaller stock of strikers than many of their Championship rivals.

In January, the club were happy to continue with Ross Stewart and Joe Gelhardt, going back into the market only when Stewart got injured.

At the end of the previous window, they pressed on with just Stewart and Ellis Simms though they had pushed aggressively to Nathan Broadhead from Everton on a permanent deal.

So we can surmise that ideally they would like three established strikers, which would provide cover from injury and give the head coach to play with two on occasions that demand it.

Generally Sunderland play with one forward and this is relevant for a couple of reasons. One is that it means the Black Cats believe it would be difficult to carry a large number and keep them happy with their game time. While other clubs may have more strikers, Sunderland believe that can be destabilising to the squad as a whole if some of those grow restless with their minutes. From the outside, it’s pretty difficult to make a judgement on that view.

As was the case with Broadhead, they also believe that high-calibre forwards are unlikely to join if they feel there’s a chance their game time will be squeezed and there are other strikers already ahead of them in the pecking order.

Where Sunderland’s hierarchy have been frustrated is that the persistent academy sales under the previous ownership left a huge gap beyond the first team, one that is only just starting to be closed now. The ideal scenario would be to have 2-3 established strikers, and an academy graduate to offer depth and push for game time. Sam Greenwood and Joe Hugill are two obvious examples, players who could have bolstered the squad and developed into future starters when a senior player moves on or a loanee returns to their parent club.

The arrival of Eliezer Mayenda can be understood with this in mind. Mayende is a versatile forward who could make an impact this season, but is very much a long-term project.

So why do Sunderland find it so hard to recruit strikers?

Well, there has certainly been some bad luck - and Mayende picking an up in his first training session just about summed it up.

Simms’ shock recall and Stewart’s injury setbacks have also been key setbacks in that long-term bid to build a strikeforce.

Primarily, though, the issue is one of finance.

When we outlined the ideal Sunderland striker earlier, the thought probably occurred to you that a) they aren’t too easy to find and b) when you find them, they tend cost a lot of money.

Both are true. Right now, Sunderland simply aren’t top spenders at Championship level and it follows logically that this causes the biggest challenge in the position where players cost a premium. 

They’re determined to build sustainably, and to not incur huge losses. Financial Fair Play is one factor here, a massive issue for second-tier clubs once the EFL got tough on enforcing it, while it’s also true the case that the ownership just isn’t prepared to write off vast sums year after year. Any assessment of the recruitment team and the sporting director has to bear in mind that they are working to a strict budget. Understandably this can seem like a frustrating lack of ambition to some supporters, but the ownership would no doubt counter that the situation they inherited underlines the importance of building gradually.

The examples of Broadhead and Simms are instructive. In both cases, the numbers eventually ran to a point where the Black Cats were simply not viable contenders to do the deal. They also ran to a point where significant future profit seemed unlikely. Ipswich’s ownership are investing in their playing squad on a massive level and immediately, while Coventry City had just banked the best part of £20 million on Viktor Gyokeres and are two years further down the line in terms of being established at Championship level.

Ultimately, the striker frustrations of the last few windows underline exactly why with this model, future player sales are fundamentally key to growing both the squad and the transfer budget.

So what happens next?

The million-dollar question. 

Mowbray has accepted that at this stage, Sunderland will probably not be signing the finished article. In a summit held after the defeat to Crewe Alexandra, he expressed the view that it’s probably best for Sunderland to move now, so they get straight on with the task of integrating a new signing and getting them up to speed.

Wait for the perfect deal, and you risk being left exposed if it doesn’t come off towards the end of the window. 

This is the crux of the issue for Sunderland right now: who have to balance their strict budget with the obvious need to sign a striker of the calibre required to turn what is a good team into a fearsome one. While the loan market could be an excellent avenue at the end of the window, the long-term uncertainty of Stewart’s future means that they also need to recruit another permanent addition as soon as possible so they are prepared for the worst-case scenario. 

It’s a huge test of the model because while generally very supportive of it and what it has achieved already, there is an expectation from fans that Sunderland should have a team that thrives at this level. To do that next season, they need another and if there are no guarantees over Stewart, then it needs to be a good one.

The pressure is on.