Why Alex Neil is facing his toughest Sunderland selection dilemmas yet ahead of Wembley final

The first rule of predicting Alex Neil's Sunderland XI is that you're already wasting your time.
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Neil is steadfast in his belief that teams should be selected based in part on what the opposition offer and where they can potentially be exploited. Combine that with the injury and squad issues he has faced since arriving at Sunderland, summed up best by the consistent lack of natural full backs available, and it has meant regular and often unexpected changes.

So there was an irony that when the team news dropped for the second leg at Hillsborough, the surprise was that Neil had changed nothing at all.

The background

Nathan Broadhead celebrates his first goal. Safc. 3-2 Safc Efl1 15-04-22. Picture by FRANK REIDNathan Broadhead celebrates his first goal. Safc. 3-2 Safc Efl1 15-04-22. Picture by FRANK REID
Nathan Broadhead celebrates his first goal. Safc. 3-2 Safc Efl1 15-04-22. Picture by FRANK REID
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For the first time in his tenure Neil named the same XI for successive games and even more importantly, when Sheffield Wednesday equalised despite having rarely threatened through the game, he doubled down.

“I didn't think we deserved to trail, and I don’t think anyone expected it really," he would explain afterwards.

"I just said to the lads, ‘it’s a moment, it’s done, it’s gone’. And I thought we responded really, really well.

“It's probably the first time I've not made early changes and that's because I had so much faith in those players.

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“I felt if I changed it, I might dilute what we're doing. I had to stick to my guns but I believed in what that team were doing for me.

"They delivered for me again."

The winning goal was vindication for Neil's belief that Sunderland's wingers were the most likely source of a goal, Jack Clarke exploiting the space left behind as Nathaniel Mendez-Laing switched off. The Spurs loanee drove to the byline and found Patrick Roberts, who had made an excellent run from the right across the third centre-back to convert from close range.

Both were superb across the tie, Clarke constantly relieving pressure in the way he carried the ball out from deep. Having understandably taken time to get up to speed following a long spell without regular football, Roberts looked to be operating just about at his best.

It gives Neil two key attacking weapons to call upon at Wembley, but it also leaves him with something of a dilemma.

The big Nathan Broadhead call

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That Nathan Broadhead would ordinarily be named in Sunderland's strongest XI is not really in question. Over the course of the current campaign he has proven himself to be one of the most explosive players in League One, and most importantly, one of its best finishers.

His conversation rate across the campaign would have had him firmly in the conversation for the golden boot, had he been able to avoid the muscle injuries which have been the only drawback in a hugely impressive campaign.

The Everton loanee is also comfortable carrying the ball over significant distances and has struck up a strong rapport with Ross Stewart both on and off the pitch.

Stewart is generally less of a goal threat when Broadhead plays, but mainly because that allows him to drop deeper and drift into the channels more regularly. When they have played together, third-tier defences have struggled to cope.

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The dilemma over Broadhead's inclusion from the start at Wembley is twofold, all the same.

One is the question over his fitness. The Welshman was able to come on at Hillsborough and help see his team over the line, and has also trained this week to boost his chances.

But Neil admitted that he was not at full tilt for the second leg, included mainly as a contingency option.

There is also a tactical dilemma, too. Including Broadhead would likely mean switching to a back three, pushing Roberts and Clarke into wing back roles. Both have carried those out with relative success at times in recent weeks, but the risk is of both negating their attacking threat and offering space for Wycombe Wanderers' dangerous wingers to operate in. This will be a key concern for Neil, who generally likes to match up his opponent in terms of shape. Gareth Ainsworth's side operated with a back three for much of the early part of the season but their recent run has come off the back of a switch to a back four.

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Playing a back three would also leave Neil struggling to find room for Lynden Gooch, who has been in outstanding form of late.

There will surely be a temptation to stick with the formula that worked well against Wednesday, with Broadhead there to potentially impact the game in the latter stages. The flipside is that Broadhead's inclusion could help Sunderland get ahead in the contest, but with no other strikers what happens if he runs out of steam and his side need another option?

It's not an easy one and the big calls won't end there, either.

Why it’s not all about the starting XI

With an almost full fit squad at his disposal, Neil will have some crucial decisions to make as to who is best suited to potentially bolstering his side later in the game, whether it be to protect a lead or try and find one.

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There was a surprise boost this week when Carl Winchester returned to training, and he could yet make his way into the squad ahead of Trai Hume should he be deemed fit enough. Hume has impressed behind the scenes since arriving in January but Winchester would likely have the edge in terms of experience, versatility and also physicality.

Similarly, while Callum Doyle brings technical quality, Arbenit Xhemajli could be well suited to Wycombe's physical forward line.

Further forward, Neil also to weigh up whether Leon Dajaku or Aiden McGeady is close enough to full match fitness to make it into the bench following recent illness and injury.

It would be a bold call to include either ahead of Elliot Embleton or Dan Neil, who while not regulars have made key contributions along the recent road to Wembley.