Who has the best remaining fixtures out of Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday, Oxford, Plymouth and Wycombe in League One play-off race

Sunderland have six games remaining to try and secure a play-off place in League One – yet the competition is stronger than ever to finish inside the division’s top six.
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Nathan Broadhead’s stoppage-time winner against Gillingham on Saturday could be significant, yet the margin for error remains slim for Alex Neil’s side.

So which teams have the best run-ins as we head into the final few weeks of the season?

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To find out, we’ve looked at analysis from soccerstats.com, which calculates the points-per-game of each remaining opponent for the teams in contention, weighting it specifically for home and away form.

Sunderland vs Oxford United. Picture by FRANK REIDSunderland vs Oxford United. Picture by FRANK REID
Sunderland vs Oxford United. Picture by FRANK REID

Here are the results:

3rd: MK Dons (79 points from 40 games)

Form: 1st (16 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.23

Crewe (H), AFC Wimbledon (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Oxford (A), Morecambe (H), Plymouth (A)

After a remarkable 13-match unbeaten run (including ten wins) Liam Manning’s side will have aspirations of sneaking into the automatic promotion places.

The Dons face two teams in the relegation places (Crewe and AFC Wimbledon) next and could overtake Wigan and Rotherham this week.

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It’s also likely The Dons will have an impact on who finishes in the final play-off positions, with games against Sheffield Wednesday, Oxford and Plymouth to come.

Given their fine form, there may be a sense of disappointment if they don’t end up in the top two and have to face the play-offs.

4th: Plymouth (77 points from 41 games)

Form: 2nd (15 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.79

Burton (A), Wycombe (A), Sunderland (H), Wigan (A), MK Dons (H)

While Plymouth have built up an eight-point buffer between themselves and seventh-place Oxford, the Pilgrims’ play-off place isn’t secure just yet.

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Steven Schumacher’s side have the toughest run-in out of the play-off contenders and have played a game more than the teams directly below them.

Plymouth’s form has been excellent in the last few weeks, though, with the team winning seven of their last eight matches.

Victory over a struggling Burton side would put the Pilgrims within touching distance of a top-six finish, ahead of four difficult fixtures.

5th: Sheffield Wednesday (72 points from 40 games)

Form: 6th (11 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.43

Bolton (A), MK Dons (A), Crewe (H), Wycombe (A), Fleetwood (A), Portsmouth (H)

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Like Sunderland, Wednesday left it late on Saturday, with Lee Gregory scoring a stoppage-time winner in a 2-1 win over AFC Wimbledon.

Darren Moore’s side have a fair run-in and are finishing the season strong, though tricky away games at Bolton and MK Dons will put their credentials to the test.

The Owls will fancy their chances given that sides around them still have to play each other, while Wednesday will expect to take three points against bottom of the table Crewe, and at relegation-threatened Fleetwood.

Four of Wednesday’s last six games are away from home, though, and the Owls have won just six of 19 league matches on the road this season.

6th: Sunderland (70 points from 40 games)

Form: 4th (14 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.55

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Oxford (A), Shrewsbury (H), Plymouth (A), Cambridge (H), Rotherham (H), Morecambe (A)

Away games against play-off rivals Oxford and Plymouth immediately stand out when looking at the Black Cats’ remaining fixtures.

Broadhead’s last-minute winner against Gillingham on Saturday has significantly strengthened Sunderland’s position and, while they will be looking to win the game, it probably won’t be a bad result if they draw at Oxford this weekend.

Neil’s side have won their last three home games and will be expected to take all three points when they host Shrewsbury and Cambridge.

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The difficulty of the Black Cats’ final two fixtures are hard to judge, given it’s unclear what Rotherham (who are fighting for an automatic promotion place) and Morecambe (who are battling to stay up) will have to play for.

7th: Oxford (69 points from 40 games)

Form: 10th (10 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.41

Morecambe (A), Sunderland (H), Fleetwood (A), MK Dons (H), Rotherham (A), Doncaster (H)

Saturday’s defeat at Plymouth has put Karl Robinson’s side on the back foot, yet they could move back into the top six with a win at Morecambe in midweek.

Oxford are the top scorers in League One with 74 goals and will still back themselves to finish in the top six, with three games remaining against sides in the bottom six.

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Like Sunderland, Oxford’s run-in is mixed, and it’s likely both MK Dons and Rotherham will still be targeting an automatic promotion place when they face the U’s.

A home fixture against Doncaster (who are seven points from safety) looks favourable on the final day of the season.

8th: Wycombe (69 points from 40 games)

Form: 5th (14 points from 6 games)

PPG of opponents remaining: 1.30

Cambridge (A), Gillingham (A), Plymouth (H), AFC Wimbledon (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Burton (A)

A side which some people may have written off, yet Gareth Ainsworth’s side remain well in the play-off race.

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Wycombe statistically have better run-ins than Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland and Oxford, and are just a point outside the top six.

It may prove a disadvantage that four of the Chairboys’ remaining matches are away from home, yet all their fixtures away from Adams Park are against sides in the bottom half of the table.

Wycombe have rediscovered some form too, taking 14 points from their last six matches.

Home games against play-off rivals Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday could prove decisive.

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