What the data says about where Alex Neil has made significant progress at Sunderland - and where more is needed

Not without cause, either.

Even if performances have been inconsistent this was a third clean sheet in four games, and extended the unbeaten run to five.

Strong form elsewhere means that even despite that, Sunderland’s play-off ambitions still hang by a slender thread.

So what does the data behind the performances tell us about Neil’s progress, and how hopeful fans should be about the road ahead.

We took a closer look, using statistics from wyscout.com….

ATTACKING

Sunderland’s attacking output for the season generally has been good, and really was the bedrock of their promotion push.

For example, their expected goals tally for the season as a whole so far (57) is the fifth best in the division. They also sit fifth for shots, % of shots on target, and fourth for touches inside the opposition penalty area.

When the teams around them have caught up in terms of game played, they will likely drop slightly in those rankings.

Under Alex Neil, the numbers have stayed relatively consistent.

Their XG per game has actually gone up slightly, from 1.51 for the season in general to 1.75 in Neil’s seven games to date.

While that figure is certainly skewed slightly by Ross Stewart’s two penalties against Wigan Athletic, the general indicators are that Neil has been able to maintain the general level of attacking threat.

The average number of touches in the opposition box per game are down but only ever so slightly, from 18.5 to 17.2. Crosses and passes completed deep in opposition territory have stayed consistent, 5 and 6 per game under Neil compared to 7 and 5 for the season as a whole.

The average number of shots per game are at 12.6 in Neil’s seven games, compared to 13 for the season as a whole.

Moving forward, Neil may well feel these are numbers he can improve even further.

Dan Neil has been one of the team’s key creative forces this season, and looks refreshed after a break from the starting XI.

Nathan Broadhead is returning to the fold, while January additions Jack Clarke, Patrick Roberts and Jermain Defoe are slowly building match fitness.

Neil has also pointed to Luke O’Nien as a player whose energy he thinks can add goals to his group.

The head coach is still searching for consistency both in selection and performance in the final third, but has kept performance levels relatively stable in the meantime.

To win promotion, they will undoubtedly need to improve.

DEFENDING

Neil identified improving Sunderland’s defence as the key priority when arriving on Wearside, and little wonder.

While their attacking numbers were decent as outlined above, defensively they were way off the pace being set by their promotion rivals.

To underline that, they sit 14th in the table for expected goals against for the season as a whole, underlining the regularity with which they have gifted up good opportunities to the opposition.

Neil has already made inroads on this front, with the average XGA in his seven games down to 0.97 from a concerning 1.34.

Had Sunderland replicated that across the whole season so far, then they would have the third-best expected goals against for the division.

Unsurprisingly, they are also conceding significantly fewer shots under Neil, down from 12 to 7.7 per game. They are also giving the opposition fewer touches inside the box, down from 14.31 to 9.

Perhaps most encouraging here is that against AFC Wimbledon, Neil’s first game in charge but one that came after just one training session, was statistically the team’s worst performance of his tenure and by a significant distance. Even then, it was a Luke McCormick penalty (dubiously awarded) that got the hosts on the scoresheet.

There are clear signs of improvement over the course of those seven games, and particularly in the recent five-game unbeaten run.

Sunderland’s average XGA surges to 1.49 away from home, but across 180 minutes Wigan and Charlton Athletic weren’t able to reach that target combined.

On home turf Neil is still working to make his side less vulnerable to the counter attack, but the progress generally is clear.

PRESSING

One clear shift is in Sunderland’s pressing.

PPDA is a metric that measures pressing by establishing how many passes a team allows before they disrupt, whether it be through an attempted tackle or interception.

For the season as a whole Sunderland’s average PPDA per game is 8.77, which is around midtable.

In Neil’s seven games it is down to 5.49, which over the course of a campaign would comfortably make them the division’s most aggressive pressing team.

CONCLUSIONS

Arguably Neil’s two biggest challenges when taking the job were the number of goals Sunderland were conceding, and the disjointed match fitness across the squad.

Neil has shown he is willing to be pragmatic and particularly away from home, there are signs that he can deliver a big uplift in organisation and defensive structure. With fellow play-off contenders Oxford United and Plymouth Argyle still to play on the road, that could yet be key.

On home turf getting the right balance against teams happy to sit in and play on the counter is proving more difficult, even if back-to-back wins mark progress.

Neil is making his mark, but will need to coax more improvement from his group if they are to get over the line and secure promotion at the fourth time of asking in May.

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