This is how many more wins Sunderland will need to win promotion this season - according to the history books

Eight wins from their final 11 games should be enough for Sunderland to achieve promotion this season - according to the history books.

Thursday, 25th March 2021, 12:30 pm

The Black Cats are perched on the brink of the automatic promotion places after an 11-game unbeaten run propelled the side back into promotion contention.

And with the season rapidly approaching its end, fans are speculating as to how many points will prove enough to seal a return to the Championship.

We’ve crunched the numbers to find out exactly how many points Sunderland will need to achieve promotion this season - based on previous League One campaigns.

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This is how many more wins Sunderland will need to win promotion this season - according to the history books

And having examined every League One season since the rebrand in 2004/05 - minus last season’s curtailed campaign - a points target has now been set for the Wearsiders…


Before delving into the data, it’s worth noting that due to the unique nature of this particular third tier season that the points required to achieve promotion could be slightly lower in the past.

But generally speaking, a tally of 87 points will be enough for clubs to get out of League One via a place in the top two.

That’s the average number of points that has been required to gain automatic promotion since 2004/05, but within that there have been some wildly differing figures.

For example, Blackburn Rovers required a staggering 96 points to finish second in the 2017/18 season - while in the 2005/06 campaign, 79 points was enough for Colchester United to seal a spot in the Championship.

This season, the likelihood is the figure will lie somewhere in the middle, with the average of 87 points probably not far away of what Sunderland will require to finish in the top two.

That means a further eight wins from their final 11 games would give them a fine chance of promotion.


With games in hand and momentum firmly on their side, Sunderland will undoubtedly have the League One title still firmly in their sights.

And while the likes of Hull City and Peterborough United will have plenty to say in that regard, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the Black Cats will be lifting the trophy come May.

But for that to happen, the likelihood is that they will need to have a fine end to the season.

Teams have won League One with as many as 103 points and as few as 82 - but the average number of points required to win the league comes in at 94.

That means Sunderland would require a further 30 points, equivalent to ten wins from their final eleven games, to hit that target.

It will be a hard ask given the fixtures Lee Johnson’s side still have to face, with their run-in the toughest of any of the sides competing for the top two.

So if Sunderland can pick up that kind of points haul in the final weeks of the campaign, then they will be worthy winners of a competitive division.

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