The dream points target Sunderland will be aiming for and the precedent that will give fans hope ahead of promotion push

He has no doubt that the club is moving forward.

Better days and better times are ahead, he has said. The takeover of the club by Kyril Louis-Dreyfus was, he said on Saturday, an important part of his arrival at the club and confirmation of its completion will allow for investment in key areas.

He is encouraged, too, by the performances on the pitch and a growing sense that his squad are gaining a strong understanding of his demands.

He is equally eager to keep his squad grounded even as he relishes a growing excitement amongst supporters.

This is a division that can 'slap you in the face very, very quickly', he said after the 3-0 win over Burton on Saturday, and the memories of games like Shrewsbury Town away are a reminder of the work ahead.

Sunderland are a club embarking on a long-term project, but one that also retains ambitions of winning promotion this season.

They have left themselves much work to do, but how realistic a prospect is a tilt at the top two?

A delve through third-tier history tells us it is possible, but will require something special from Johnson and his squad...

What history tells us about the point target they'll have to aim for

For obvious reasons, last season was something of an anomaly in League One.

Bury were expelled early in the campaign, meaning that it was set to be a 43-game campaign even before an early curtailment due to COVID-19.

League One clubs voted to settle the table on a points-per-game formula and perhaps unsurprisingly, the final results were somewhat skewed.

Rotherham United were promoted with a PPG record of 1.77, which averaged out over a season would result in a final tally of 81. That would have been the lowest points total recorded by a side finishing in the top two. On the other end of the scale, sixth-placed Fleetwood Town's PPG total would have left them with a final tally of 79, comfortably the highest required to land a play-off spot over the last ten years.

The current table suggests a strong tally will again be needed to secure a play-off position, but that landing second will require a much stronger performance than Rotherham’s.

Removing this campaign from our calculations and studying the previous nine seasons gives us a better understanding of what Sunderland will have to do.

Currently, their form leaves them tracking well for a spot in the top six.

They are averaging 1.67 PPG, which if maintained between now and the end of the season will leave them with a final tally of 77 points. That would have been enough to secure a play-off position in any of the nine seasons previous to 2019/20.

In fact, the average points tally of the side finishing sixth over that period is 72.

Their PPG tally in Johnson's tenure so far is 1.64, and given their gradual improvements in recent times there is good reason to think that this will continue to climb (their PPG over the last six games is 1.8).

The top two is clearly a far steeper challenge and with Peterborough United currently tracking at exactly two PPG in second place, there is good reason to think that this season will see something of a reversion to the mean in terms of points needed for automatic promotion.

Over the nine third-tier seasons previous to last, the average points tally of the team finishing second is 90.

The highest second-placed finish in that time was Blackburn Rovers in 2017/18 with 96 points, and the lowest was Bournemouth in 2012/13 with 83.

The more traditional target for teams chasing automatic promotion is 92, which works out as a PPG of exactly 2 across the season. It’s a target set because over the last ten years, no side has ever reached that total and not achieved automatic promotion.

Both numbers underline the scale of the challenge ahead for Sunderland.

To reach 90 points they will need to find a further 43 from 18 games, while 45 will see them hit the 2 PPG landmark.

That sets a lofty target of 2.4 PPG between now and the end of the season for Johnson and his side.

The precedents that will give Sunderland fans some hope

Given that the Black Cats still have to face every side currently in the top ten (apart from Doncaster Rovers) at least once before the end of the season, it stresses the need to build on this current momentum in the immediate future when the fixture list is kinder.

Sunderland’s last two promotion campaigns, though, set something of a precedent and will offer some hope to supporters.

Roy Keane’s side were actually four points worse off at this same stage of the 2006/07 season, but won 46 points from their last 18 games to be crowned winners of the Championship.

They lost only once in that time and registered 14 wins. Remarkably, the run saw them rise from ninth in the table and ten points behind Derby County at this stage. Derby would finish third, four points behind the Black Cats in the final reckoning.

In 2004/05 Mick McCarthy’s side were sat third in the table with 50 points at the same stage of the campaign, and went on to secure 44 points from their last 18 games to win the title.

It’s a tall order for the Black Cats, and Johnson will not be getting carried away as he seeks to build greater consistency of performance.

Sunderland are overhauling their playing philosophy and with training time limited and injuries in a challenging schedule inevitable, there will almost certainly be bumps in the road.

After the most challenging of years, though, you can forgive supporters just beginning to dare to dream.

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