The challenging points total Sunderland will need to secure a play-off place revealed and explained

There were sides relegated from the Championship who clearly had all the ingredients to go again: Rotherham United, Wycombe Wanderers.

There were those who fell short last year who were unlikely to be too far off the pace this time around, and those who were looking to disrupt after impressive summer windows: Oxford United, Wigan Athletic, MK Dons.

Then there were the heavyweights, clubs in lean times but who on reputation should not be anywhere near this level: Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday, Bolton Wanderers, Ipswich Town, Portsmouth.

Through the first half of the campaign the poor form of many in that latter category meant those predictions weren’t quite coming to pass, but now they very much are, and it is manifesting itself in the most fiercely contested battle for a play-off spot in modern League One history.

At the heart of which is Alex Neil’s Sunderland.

The stakes could not be higher as the club bids to beat spending a fifth campaign in the third tier, but it speaks to the challenge ahead that even having taken seven points from their last three games, their prospects have not improved significantly.

Though they remain fifth in the table, on points-per-game they sit seventh.

Their promotion hopes remain very much alive, but they are also hanging by the most slender of threads.

So what points total do they realistically need to reach to secure a top-six spot?

History would suggest that as things stand, they are well on track.

Over the previous ten campaigns, the average points total of the team finishing sixth in League One has been 73. To reach that total, Sunderland would need a tally of just ten points from their remaining nine league fixtures. That looks a formality, even accounting for some very indifferent displays in 2022 so far.

The lowest total of any side to make it into the top six during that time was Chesterfield in the 2014/15 season, when they made the play-offs with just 69 points.

The highest total in that time is 74, which has four times been the points tally of the team finishing sixth.

The obvious exception to this was the 2019/20 campaign, which was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the final table settled on points-per-game. Fleetwood Town were awarded the final play-off spot with a PPG tally of 1.71, at the time having a record of 60 points from 35 games.

Oxford United and Portsmouth (eventually finishing fourth and fifth) also had a PPG tally of 1.71, meaning that over the course of the campaign it would in theory have taken 79 points to make the play-offs.

A sobering thought is that in the current League One table, not one of those teams would currently be in the play-off places with that PPG tally.

As it stands, the table based on PPG looks like this:

3rd - MK DONS 1.95

4th - PLYMOUTH ARGYLE 1.77

5th - OXFORD UNITED 1.76

6th - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 1.74

7th - SUNDERLAND 1.70

8th - WYCOMBE WANDERERS 1.69

Were all six teams to maintain that level of form of the remainder of the season, it would leave the table looking like this:

3rd - MK DONS 90

4th - PLYMOUTH ARGYLE 81

5th - OXFORD UNITED 81

6th - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 80

7th - SUNDERLAND 78

8th - WYCOMBE WANDERERS 77

Perhaps the prospect of all those teams going through the rest of the campaign without a slump in form is unlikely, but it acts as a good barometer of the kind of target the Black Cats will have to aim for.

Remember, too, that the contenders for the play-offs do not end at Wycombe Wanderers.

Though they remain a touch off the pace as things stand, both Portsmouth and Ipswich Town have been in formidable form of late and cannot yet be ruled out entirely, even if games are running out for the latter.

Based on their current PPG tallies, Portsmouth and Ipswich are on track to end the season with a total of 75 and 73 points respectively.

For perspective, in every regular season since 2011/12 Danny Cowley’s side would have made the top six with that points tally. On current projections, they would finish ninth.

So a total of 80 points would as things stand give Sunderland a strong chance of making the top six, though to be sure they might like to get slightly beyond that (no team this century has landed 80 points and failed to get to the play-offs).

Seventeen points from the last nine games would get Sunderland to 80, with five wins and two draws being a useful barometer as to how they might get there.

Six wins would leave them in all likelihood in a very strong position indeed, while it goes without saying that the trips to Oxford United and Plymouth Argyle before the regular season ends could yet prove key.

By and large Sunderland’s recent performances under Neil offer some encouragement, particularly the improvements in defensive organisation away to Wigan and Charlton Athletic.

The Black Cats head coach admitted, though, that the first-half performance against Fleetwood Town on Tuesday night had meant it was ‘back to the drawing board’ as he tries to plot a path to that top six.

To do so, Sunderland will need to find a consistency that in recent times has often proved elusive.

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