Ten games of Tony Mowbray at Sunderland - the interesting trends that show what's changed and what might be next

Mowbray made clear that in so many areas, particularly developing a bond with his players and creating a culture where they can develop on and off the pitch, he is only just getting started.

On the pitch, it’s fair to say that the vision he has is yet to materialise as injuries continue to bite. Mowbray is itching to get his centre-forwards back on the pitch, and to be able to add the physicality to his defensive line that can forge a unit competitive all over the pitch.

“I’m confident that when we get all the key components together, we can win enough games to make it an exciting, enjoyable season,” he said.

But what have we learned from his opening ten games in charge about how his side is changing and developing - and where it might go next? We’ve taken a closer look at the underlying data to see what it tells us…

Battling a major challenge going forward

Unsurprisingly, Sunderland’s attacking output has seen a general decline from the opening six games of the season. That, in all likelihood, says more about the absence of Ross Stewart and Ellis Simms than any shift in approach between the two head coaches.

Stewart has only been available for one of Mowbray’s games in charge: Sunderland scored there and posted some of their most impressive attacking statistics of the season so far. Simms lasted barely a game longer, and since then Mowbray has been trying to find solutions in the final third.

As a general rule, he has managed to maintain a consistent level of performance in terms of Sunderland’s threat building up to the final third. In the first six of the games season Sunderland average number of shots-per-game was 12, with four of those on target. In Mowbray’s ten games in charge, they average 12.6 shots, 3.6 of which are on target. Under Mowbray they are averaging 16 touches inside the opposition box each game, up from 14 in the opening six fixtures.

These are strong numbers when compared to the rest of the division. If we were to take their average under Mowbray on these metrics, Sunderland are around the top six for shots and upper-mid table for touches inside the opposition box. The issue for Sunderland is turning that into clear chances . Mowbray has spoken of the difficulty in getting his attacking midfielders to change the habits of their careers in the absence of Stewart and Simms, to break into the six-yard box and create openings from close range - the kind Stewart exploited so well in that Rotherham game, but of which only Elliot Embleton has really been able to replicate against Wigan Athletic since.

As a result, Sunderland’s expected goals has dipped from an average of 1.36 across the opening six matches to 0.99 in Mowbray’s ten games, according to Wyscout’s model. For context, if we were to apply that average and compare it to the rest of the division over 16 games, Sunderland would be hovering just above the bottom four. This is the clear flaw for Sunderland to address, and underlines why the return of Simms (hopefully in some capacity at Luton Town) and then Stewart is absolutely vital.

A notable improvement – and the start of a long-term shift?

One marked shift since Mowbray’s arrival has been in Sunderland’s possession statistics. Again, discerning whether this is due to personnel or philosophy isn’t straightforward.

Alex Neil spoke early in the season of how he had significantly shifted the emphasis in his side from last season. Having decided upon arrival in February that his best bet at winning promotion was fixing the defensive structure and allowing individual talent in the final third to do the rest, now he focused on ensuring his team could hurt a significantly higher standard of opposition.

Hence why Stewart and Simms were often paired together, and why as a result the Black Cats were averaging around 42% possession in their first six games. They were often direct but most importantly, they were consistently dangerous.

Early balls forward are, it is fair to say, of no great use to Mowbray when in many games Alex Pritchard, Amad or Embleton have been operating as a false nine. Sunderland’s average possession in his tenure has jumped to around 56%. Perhaps too that is a reflection of Sunderland’s strong early form, forcing opposition teams to alter their approach and particularly at the Stadium of Light.

It seems likely that we will see this trend persist, though. This squad was primarily recruited to play a 4-3-3 and it seems likely that the influx of technical midfielders will survive the return of Stewart and Simms. Mowbray is no fan of possession for the sake of it and will welcome the option to mix up his team’s approach play with a proper focal point, but in the long run he will want his team to control games as much as possible.

One very interesting product of this shift is that defensively Sunderland are gifting up significantly fewer openings than in the first six games. They are facing an average of nine shots per game under Mowbray, compared to around 14 before his arrival. The opposition are having an average of 14 touches in the Sunderland box, compared to 20 previous. To underline this significant improvement, Sunderland’s expected-goals against has dipped from 1.45 to 1. Across 16 games that would make the Black Cats one of the sturdiest defences in the division.

Consider, too, that this has been achieved despite Sunderland being left hugely vulnerable to set plays as a result of losing so much of their physicality and height to injury. In many of mowbray’s games the bulk of those few openings have come from dead-ball situations. Mowbray has also been able to maintain Sunderland’s aggressive pressing game, a key facet of the club’s long-term philosophy. Sunderland’s passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) under the new head coach is 8.9 per game, the third lowest in the division.

Where Mowbray and his SAFC side stand

Ten games in Mowbray’s record reads twelve points from ten games, a (very) slight dip in points-per-game from the opening run of fixtures preceding his arrival.

In truth, that is a more than fair record having played eight of those with no striker and with an incredibly inexperienced side only just promoted from League One. Add in the turbulence from Neil’s sudden departure and it has been an impressive feat to keep Sunderland competitive in each and every game, playing some eye-catching football along the way.

The challenge for Mowrbay is to eke out enough points from the next four games before the World Cup break to keep his side clear of trouble, for after that is when he believes we will see what his Sunderland team will be all about.

The evidence of the first ten games is that there is a platform there to be built on, and the key will be in integrating those centre-forwards into a structure that is functioning pretty well up until the six-yard box. Mowbray himself has seen more than enough that there are exciting days ahead. For now, his focus is on sending his side into that break with more hard-fought points under their belt: without Stewart all know that is easier said than done.