Data experts predicts how Sunderland will fare under Alex Neil and its verdict on Portsmouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Wigan Athletic and Ipswich Town’s quest for promotion
It has been a roller coaster few weeks for Sunderland, but how have their promotion chances been affected by recent events?
By Joe Buck
Published 11th Feb 2022, 12:00 BST
Updated 11th Feb 2022, 12:39 BST
The Black Cats have suffered three defeats in a row and although they currently occupy a playoff berth, their automatic promotion hopes are fading, and teams below are catching up fast.
However, a new manager will bring optimism back to Wearside and Sunderland have 15 games to make good on their early season promise and end the season on a high.
Is automatic promotion a likely outcome this season? Or will it be the dreaded playoffs once again for Sunderland? Or worse?
Here, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight, a ‘supercomputer’ has predicted how the 2021/22 League One season will finish and which position each team is most likely to finish the season in, based on statistical analysis.
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Is automatic promotion a likely outcome this season? Or will it be the dreaded playoffs once again for Sunderland? Or worse?
21. 4th: MK Dons - 80 points
Losing their manager on the eve of the new season did not derail MK Dons’ promotion hopes as they have featured in and around the top six all campaign - and that is exactly where they are predicted to finish this season.
Supercomputer prediction: 57% chance of a playoff place, 28% chance of automatic promotion, 2% chance of winning League One Photo: Clive Mason
Possibly the team that will be most hampered by a slow start to the season is Sheffield Wednesday. Four wins to nil in their last four games have shot the Owls up the table and although the supercomputer makes them the most likely challengers to the runaway top two, they may have to settle for the playoffs.
Supercomputer prediction: 61% chance of a playoff place, 33% chance of automatic promotion, 3% chance of winning League One Photo: George Wood
If you’re a Wigan fan, you probably see the race for the League One title as a two-horse race and whilst that is true, the supercomputer is predicting that the Latics may have to settle for just automatic promotion this season.
Supercomputer prediction: 60% chance of automatic promotion, 20% chance of winning League One Photo: Lewis Storey
The Millers are being predicted to finish as runaway leaders in League One this season. They currently hold a nine point lead over Wigan in second and although they may have played three games more than the Latics, this gap should be too much to overcome and Rotherham may be celebrating the League One title at the end of the season.
Supercomputer prediction: 92% chance of automatic promotion, 70% chance of winning League One Photo: Warren Little