Sunderland’s interesting underlying data showing how they compare to Southampton, Watford and league rivals

While admitting he didn’t completely understand the metric, Sunderland boss Tony Mowbray referenced expected goals ahead of last weekend’s match against Preston North End.

Despite losing 2-1 against Ipswich in their first league game of the season, the Black Cats were ranked inside the top six when it came to the aforementioned measurement.

Ultimately, Sunderland’s first two league games have ended in defeats, yet there’s a feeling within the squad that results haven’t told the whole story. 

Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Preston was another game of fine margins, with a few lapses in concentration and unfortunate deflections leading to the hosts’ two goals.

While they have conceded four times in two league games so far this season, Sunderland actually have the third best figure in the Championship when it comes to expected goals conceded (1.89 according to Wyscout), behind only Blackburn and Watford.

It shows the Black Cats defence hasn’t given away too many clear-cut chances in their opening two matches. “Teams aren’t going to score goals like that against us every week,” said defender Dan Ballard when reflecting on the loss against Preston.

At the other end, Sunderland’s lack of striker options has been well documented, with new signing Hemir, who played for Benfica’s B team last season, the only recognised centre-forward who is available for selection.

The 20-year-old was dropped to the bench against Preston, as head coach Tony Mowbray felt it would be more beneficial to use Bradly Dack as a false nine against North End’s three centre-backs.

Yet despite their lack of forward options, Sunderland are still creating goalscoring opportunities, with an expected goals figure of 4.18 (more than double the two goals they have actually scored), the seventh highest in the Championship.

Wyscout even goes a step further and generates an expected points total based on how games have played out and the quality of chances. In that table, Sunderland are ranked fourth with an expected points total of 4.3 (behind Blackburn, Southampton and Watford).

Of course that will mean little to some who look at the table and see Sunderland are yet to get off the mark after two fixtures.

Still, it does suggest Mowbray’s side have been unfortunate over the last two weekends.

It’s also interesting to note that Sunderland are ranked third in the Championship for crosses into the box (behind Watford and Huddersfield), fourth for touches in the opposition’s penalty area (behind Watford, Southampton and Blackburn) and second for passes into the final third (behind only Southampton).  

That data shows the attacking intent Sunderland have and makes you wonder how different things would have been if Ross Stewart, who remains sidelined with an Achilles injury, had been available to apply the finishing touches.

In their opening two league games the Black Cats have also recorded 66 per cent and 65 per cent possession against Ipswich and Preston respectively, meaning they have the second highest average in the Championship behind Southampton.

That has brought problems too, with two of the goals Sunderland have conceded coming from counter attacks after overcommitting players forward.

They will certainly have to be more wary of that in the coming weeks, starting with Saturday’s home game against Rotherham.

Still, the data suggests it won’t take much for Sunderland’s fortunes to turn.