Staying, going, to be decided - Sunderland summer transfer predictions and squad audit

It’s set to be a busy transfer window on Wearside as Sunderland prepare for their first European campaign in 50 years.

Here, we take a look at each member of the senior squad to predict how the summer market might unfold and to look at some of the key challenges director of football Florent Ghisolfi will have to navigate...

Robin Roefs

As it stands, firmly expected to begin the new season as Sunderland’s number one. Roefs nevertheless stands out as one of the biggest assets in the squad, however, and is a player that elite-level clubs are known to have been tracking over the course of the last campaign. Sunderland don’t need to sell in this window and the goalkeeper is signed to a long-term deal, but the club have always been clear that departures along the way are inevitable. If they are to position themselves as one of the best clubs in the world for young talent, they have to show they won’t stand in the way when huge moves materialise. Roefs, like Noah Sadiki, would also in all likelihood represent the kind of SCR-busting sale that would allow Sunderland to reinvest for numerous windows to come.

Right now, though, next summer feels a more likely moment to assess the next steps. Don’t rule out a bumper bid to test Sunderland’s resolve all the same.

Prediction: Staying, but things could move fast if reportedly interested clubs like Chelsea put a huge bid on the table

Melker Ellborg

Ellborg was signed in January to allow Anthony Patterson to go out on loan and the plan has always been that he would provide cover and competition for Roefs into this next season. Extra games could mean more opportunities and he did himself no harm when the Dutchman was injured earlier this season. It’s a position where Sunderland feel in good order at the moment.

Prediction: Staying

Simon Moore

Speak to anyone at Sunderland and they will tell you how important the experienced goalkeeper is behind the scenes. An immensely popular team mate and a strong source of support and encouragement for the young goalkeeping group, Sunderland activated an option to extend his contract for a further year. Will also qualify as a homegrown player under UEFA and Premier League rules.

Prediction: Staying

Anthony Patterson

Even if Roefs was to leave, it’s expected that Sunderland would go back into the market and that Patterson will move on. A permanent exit is favoured by all parties, but a loan can’t be ruled out at this stage. As an academy product, Patterson represents pure profit for Sunderland and so a sale will allow them to bolster their SCR position a little for the next three years. As such, it’s vitally important they don’t undersell this summer. If a Championship (or otherwise) club can’t match their valuation, believed to be in the region of £8-10 million, a loan with an option or obligation in the event of promotion could still be possible.

Prediction: Permanent exit most likely at this stage

Trai Hume

Hume had a brilliant campaign after signing a new long-term contract last summer, and Le Bris adores both his versatility and his competitive mentality. Don’t rule interest from other clubs but it would a huge shock if he left. Hume loves it here and will be eyeing more history in Europe.

Prediction: Staying

Nordi Mukiele

Mukiele’s outstanding performances last season will undoubtedly have caught the attention of top clubs but he is a leader in the dressing room and has always made clear that alongside Granit Xhaka, he sees this as a long-term project. Something dramatic would have to change to alter that.

Prediction: Staying

Timothée Pembélé

One of Florent Ghisolfi’s biggest challenges this summer is that he has a number of players who are unlikely to be in Le Bris’s plans next season on the wage bill. That’s no one’s fault, just a reflection of how rapidly the club has progressed. The challenge for Sunderland is that many of these players secure a wage bump as a result of promotion, which makes permanent deals for the clubs who would be keen to sign them difficult. Sunderland and Ghisolfi have to get the balance right between cutting their losses and ensuring they don’t sanction departures that hurt their SCR position.

In all cases, a permanent exit is possible but a loan that allows the player to build their value and eases pressure on the club’s wage bill is very possible. With Pembélé in particular, Sunderland and the player himself will hope his second strong loan spell with Le Havre will ensure summer interest.

Prediction: Going

Dan Ballard

A new contract earlier this year in all likelihood puts an end to any speculation of a summer exit. Ballard’s immediate focus is on recovering from ankle surgery and preparing for pre-season. No doubt he has a massive role to play.

Prediction: Staying

Luke O’Nien

O’Nien has himself ruled out any prospect of a summer departure and that will suit Sunderland just fine. They love what he brings behind the scenes and the link he represents to the club’s past but most importantly, he showed at the end of last season that he’s ready to make an impact at this level in whatever position required. Will be invaluable in an expanded schedule.

Prediction: Staying

Omar Alderete

His first season on Wearside was a spectacular success and is one of the reasons why the core of the side for next season is already well established. Might Sunderland look to sign more cover and competition in this position, though?

Prediction: Staying

Reinildo

One of the pillars Sunderland will look to build their side around next season, though an expanded schedule means they will absolutely have to recruit further cover and competition. Trai Hume can of course cover when required.

Prediction: Staying

Jenson Seelt

His loan at Wolfsburg started promisingly but was then significantly impacted by injury. Likely to return to Sunderland for the start of pre-season but an exit, potentially on loan again, seems likely.

Prediction: Going

Leo Hjelde

Hjelde will look to move on in search of regular first-team football at a key stage of his career. The key for Sunderland again is to ensure any deal works financially and minimises any loss on the fee paid to Leeds to sign him. A popular figure behind the scenes who made a good impact at the club.

Prediction: Going

Arthur Masuaku

RC Lens did not have an option to buy as part of their January loan move and Masuaku did not play regularly, but he does have a strong connection to the club and so a move might not be entirely out of the question. Either way an exit is likely, with Sunderland open to both a permanent move or a loan that covers a good chunk of his wages.

Prediction: Going

Aji Alese

The defender saw a loan at Portsmouth cut short due to injury, and will likely move on this summer in search of regular first-team football. Will look to complete his rehab and get up to full fitness on Wearside first.

Prediction: Going

Alan Browne

Browne had a successful loan at Middlesbrough last season and a return would seem a strong possibility, depending on whether a deal that suits all parties financially can be struck. With one year left on his deal, a loan that covers a chunk of the wages is another possibility.

Prediction: Going

Habib Diarra

Sunderland still retain a lot of faith in Diarra and believe he can be a big part of their midfield group next season. While a big bid would of course mean pause for thought, it’s worth noting again that Sunderland will be keen to avoid any kind of loss from an SCR perspective. Injury was a big part of Diarra’s first season and the Black Cats will believe he can thrive after a full pre season.

Prediction: Staying

Granit Xhaka

Xhaka has made clear his future is at Sunderland despite some reports of interest from elsewhere. The club’s talisman believes he is only just getting started on Wearside, thankfully.

Prediction: Staying

Noah Sadiki

Like Roefs, the expectation is that Sadiki will stay for another year at least but there is also an understanding that a big bid from an elite club this summer is a possibility. What we can say for sure is that he’s a massive part of the club’s plans next season, and if he goes then it will be a fee that gives Ghisolfi plenty of room to replace him and strengthen the squad elsewhere.

Prediction: Staying, but undoubtedly one to watch

Chris Rigg

While a loan move was discussed in January, Sunderland made the right call. Rigg benefited from training with top-level players and was ready to take its chance when it came. With an expanded schedule next season, he looks well placed to kick on again and can expect more minutes whether it be on the right or in his preferred central role.

Prediction: Staying

Enzo Le Fée

There has been some speculation of a summer move but the midfielder himself has made clear he still has much he wants to achieve on Wearside and that he sees his future at the club for the time being. So there doesn’t seem to be any cause for panic at this stage.

Prediction: Staying

Milan Aleksić

Reports suggest the midfielder is close to joining Partizan Belgrade on a year-long loan, with an option-to-buy for around £1 million included. Would seem a good outcome for all parties if it can be concluded.

Prediction: Going

Abdoullah Ba

Ba didn’t play any senior football last season, which means the club’s hopes of recouping the fee they spent to sign him are remote at this stage. While a permanent exit would still be preferred, a loan will have to be considered. As with all the players in this category, a mutual termination of the contract is possible but it’s worth noting this would still have financial and SCR consequences for Sunderland.

Prediction: Going

Romaine Mundle

Mundle will hope for a big pre-season having recovered from another significant hamstring injury, but competition on the left wing is significant and after speculation of a January exit, a summer move is definitely a possibility.

Prediction: Going, but much depends on pre season

Simon Adingra

Did well at AS Monaco, who eventually qualified for the Europa Conference League play-offs after Lens won the French Cup. However, L’Equipe have reported that the club are likely not to take up their option to buy but will instead seek to negotiate a lower fee. That could leave Sunderland with a big dilemma, as a significantly lower fee would risk them making a loss not just in cash terms but also in terms of SCR. A compromise could still suit all parties, though, and the strong links between both clubs mean it has to be considered a possibility.

Prediction: Going

Jocelin Ta Bi

Sunderland will closely monitor Ta Bi’s progress in pre season, with the current thinking that the best way for him to progress is to stay on Wearside, develop with the senior group and look to make an impact in games from the bench. That could change, but the extra fixtures make it even more likely that he stays and integrates further. With Bertrand Traoré departing, this seems certain to be a position Sunderland look to recruit in this summer.

Prediction: Staying, but don’t rule out a loan late in the window

Chemsdine Talbi

Can reflect on a very promising first season at the club. Adapted well in the main to the Premier League and though he'd undoubtedly have liked more starts, he got plenty of minutes and made some important goal contributions.

Prediction: Staying

Nilson Angulo

Will hope to kick on with a full pre season after some promising performances in the second half of last season. Seems like he’ll share a lot of the minutes on the left wing in a packed schedule with Talbi.

Prediction: Staying

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Nazariy Rusyn

There was no option-to-buy clause included in the loan that took Rusyn to Polish top-tier side Arka Gdynia in January, so he will likely need to find a new destination this summer. Sunderland and the forward will hope the fact he scored four goals and made 23 appearances at the club will encourage suitors.

Prediction: Going

Luis Hemir

Portuguese side Moreirense are not expected to trigger their option-to-buy clause this summer. Sunderland would prefer a permanent exit but will likely consider any loan bids that cover a good chunk of his wages and could potentially lead to a future permanent move.

Prediction: Going

Ahmed Abdullahi

Sunderland still believe they have a real prospect in Abdullahi, but his injury issues means he isn’t seen as ready to compete for Premier League football. A permanent exit is possible if a good bid arrives, but most likely is a loan that allows Abdullahi to play regularly. Then, Sunderland can reassess the situation and either bring him into the squad or potentially turn a profit down the line if all goes well.

Prediction: Going on loan

Brian Brobbey

While his excellent first season at Sunderland has attracted the interest of top European clubs, at this stage the expectation is that he’ll look to kick on at the Stadium of Light. He’ll almost certainly start the campaign as the club’s first-choice striker and it will be up to others to try and force their way in.

Prediction: Staying

Wilson Isidor

Isidor is known to have been frustrated with his lack of starts through the second half of last season and at that point a summer exit seemed highly likely, but he then recaptured his form as an impact sub to help Sunderland book their place in the Europa League. That could mean more minutes and surely means such a popular play rethinks his position.

Prediction: Staying, but it’s clear all parties are open to a permanent move if the deal is right

Eliezer Mayenda

Sunderland loves Eliezer Mayenda and Eliezer Mayenda loves Sunderland, but the reality is his game time was very limited last season and at this stage there is no indication that will change dramatically next time around. Mayenda is keen to be the main striker somewhere and a sale would be hugely beneficial from an SCR perspective for Sunderland. Things could change very quickly and particularly if Isidor does depart, potentially bolstering his first-team chances. Either way, it seems likely one of the two will leave and a new striker will arrive.

Prediction: Going, but much will depend on Wilson Isidor’s future