Phil Smith: The key factors behind Sunderland's poor Premier League start and how worried I am about each one
It has been a disappointing start to the league season for Sunderland despite a memorable start to their European adventure
It has been a disappointing start to the Premier League season for Sunderland, who sit bottom of the table ahead of a crucial game against Coventry City this weekend.
So what has gone wrong so far and more importantly, how likely is it to be fixed?
Here, we take a closer look…
Defensive errors
Despite keeping a clean sheet against Leeds United, Sunderland are still the Premier League side to have made the most individual errors leading directly to an opposition goal (five).
The Black Cats have had a myriad of issues this season but if you had to identify the most significant, this would be it. To an extent this is no great surprise, as Régis Le Bris has already named six different central defensive partnerships in the league. This is no platform for success and has to change.
Similarly, Robin Roefs even without making any major errors saw a significant dip in his shot-stopping numbers in the early weeks of the season. Part of that was due to some exceptionally good finishing from Arsenal and Man City in particular, but overall Sunderland’s key strength in the first ten games of last season has been their weakness this time around.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
With Dan Ballard out until later in November, it’s a definite cause for short-term concern. The draw with Leeds was at least encouraging because it suggested that Sunderland have understood they need to get back to the foundations that made them successful last season. They were good in duels and defended their box well, while Roefs is starting to make more saves. If Nordi Mukiele can stay fit and with Thomas Meunier returning, these errors and general lapse in standards can still be a short-term blip. It won’t transform Sunderland’s prospects, but will give them a foundation.
Player availability
The feeling before the international break was that Sunderland had played well without getting the points they deserved against strong opposition, and that was certainly fair. It’s perhaps no surprise that performances dipped significantly after the break given the number of key players missing. Ballard has been out with a hamstring issue, Brian Brobbey missed two games and so has Wilson Isidor. Thomas Meunier has only played half an hour since the break, and Habib Diarra’s involvement so far this season has again been limited by injury.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
Brobbey, Isidor, Meunier and Diarra are nearing full fitness which should help and you’d think it unlikely the Black Cats will be left without a senior striker too often again this season. It still has to be considered a big cause for concern, though. Sunderland’s schedule will be relentless until the New Year at least and they will see a number of players go on international duty again next month. Injuries are inevitable and both the team and Le Bris will have to manage it better than in the Brighton and Bournemouth games. If not, there will clearly be trouble ahead.
Poor finishing
In another switch from early last season, Sunderland are significantly underperforming their XG this time around. Their numbers are skewed slightly by that remarkably open game away at Man City, but it suggests that from box to box the Black Cats are steadily improving. Where games are won and lost, however, they have been found wanting so far. It’s also worth noting that there has been a noticeable dip since the international break, perhaps in part to the absences mentioned above but possibly also due to a dip in confidence across the front line.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
A cause for concern, without a doubt. Brobbey is an exceptional centre forward but has not been prolific since his arrival, while a lack of regular goals from midfield and the wide areas is a fairly long standing issue. Whether that’s due to personnel or the set up of the side, it doesn’t feel like there’s an easy fix.
A tough fixture list
If we substitute Burnley away for Ipswich, Sunderland took just three points from the corresponding eight fixtures last season. It reflects that they’ve had a very tough start, particularly in terms of their home fixtures.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
Sunderland’s fate will be dictated in no small part by whether they can beat the teams around them at home, as they regularly did last season. Better opportunities at the Stadium of Light lie ahead, but equally there is no easy Premier League fixture. They can’t rely on that alone, nor on replicating their heroics against the likes of Chelsea and Newcastle United last season.
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No settled XI
Le Bris could rightly point to suspensions and injuries as the key reason for this, but in a stark contrast to last season there have too often been significant changes to personnel and partnerships this season.
Substitutions have also lacked consistency, with some players brought on one week and then seemingly fallen out of favour the next.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
Leeds United was a step in the right direction on this front, and the return of key players in the weeks ahead will help. However, the changes reflect some key issues with the makeup of the squad, which brings us to the final point…
A summer window yet to deliver
Sunderland entered the window looking to protect the core of last season’s side, which limited their budget in an SCR world. That was an understandable decision most would have made and Sunderland have clearly recruited some good young talent in the window (Jules Ahoka looks a top buy), but the two clear areas to target were the left side of defence and the right wing. The club weren’t able to do that and many of the issues Le Bris has faced have stemmed from these issues, unsettling Chemsdine Talbi’s status in the squad and forcing the head coach to chop and change on the other flank. So far, Malick Fofana’s contributions haven’t warranted the disruption even if it is still clearly early days.
Criticism of Le Bris is fair, but Florent Ghisolfi and Kyril Louis-Dreyfus also have to take some accountability.
Cause for concern, or likely to improve?
You have to expect some of the key players from last season to improve from these first few games, which will help. It’s also clearly on Le Bris to get more from his forward positions in particular, but there has to be an acceptance that the window means in some positions there are no quick fixes.
So - can Sunderland turn it around?
There were green shoots in Sunderland’s performance against Leeds United, which suggested that the dressing room is ready for the challenge ahead and firmly behind their head coach.
Nothing in Sunderland’s performance data suggests they are doomed to relegation and if we are to look at the previous two years of Le Bris’s management, it would be fair to hope that the defensive issues that have plagued the opening couple of months of the campaign may well turn out to be something of an aberration.
The Premier League is a relentless league, however, and Sunderland have no time to waste and need to quickly add the quality and clinical streak to Sunday’s steel if they are to climb away from trouble. There is a lot of football still to be played and at this stage not a need for major panic. Improvement is nevertheless clearly needed, and potentially a big boost when the January window rolls around.