Revealed: The details behind the League One proposal that remains Sunderland's last chance of promotion

Sunderland’s promotion hopes look to hinge on a radical proposal put forward by Tranmere Rovers – but what exactly is being proposed?
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With clubs across the EFL preparing to vote on how to conclude curtailed seasons early next week, it promises to be a nervy few days for a number of sides.

And Sunderland will be one of the clubs sweating on the outcome of the crucial ballot, which could sentence them to a third season in League One.

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That is unless a proposal put forward by struggling Tranmere gains momentum, with their intriguing proposition appealing to a number of clubs – including the Black Cats, for whom it remains their last chance of promotion.

We examine the proposal that remains Sunderland's last real chance of promotionWe examine the proposal that remains Sunderland's last real chance of promotion
We examine the proposal that remains Sunderland's last real chance of promotion

But what exactly are they suggesting, and what would it mean for Sunderland? We take a look:

WHAT IS THE PROPOSAL PUT FORWARD BY TRANMERE ROVERS?

In its simplest form, Tranmere’s proposals takes the unweighted points-per-game basis mentioned in the EFL’s framework and applies a ‘margin for error’ formula.

That margin for error is calculated by EFL results over the past three seasons, and is aimed to simulate a best and worst case scenario for each team – taking into account the unpredictable nature of football.

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This gives them a ‘final points range’, estimating the highest and lowest points each club could have accumulated.

Once this margin for error is applied, any teams who would be assured of automatic promotion – even in the worst case scenario - would be promoted, and likewise for relegation.

The crucial difference between Tranmere’s proposal and deciding the season on an unweighted points-per-game basis is that teams who, with the margin for error applied, could have been able to qualify for the play-offs will take part in an expanded competition. Similarly, at the bottom, any team who could have stayed up when the margin for error is applied will be spared relegation.

Full details on the proposal can be viewed HERE.

WHO WOULD BE PROMOTED AND RELEGATED?

Under these proposals, only Coventry City would be promoted automatically. Bolton Wanderers and Southend United would be relegated.

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An expanded play-off competition would then take place to decide the final two promotion spots.

No other teams would be relegated, meaning Tranmere themselves would be spared.

WHAT WOULD IT MEAN FOR SUNDERLAND?

Sunderland would be one of eight teams taking part in an expanded play-off competition under this proposal.

They would join Rotherham, Oxford, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Peterborough, Wycombe and Doncaster in a knock-out competition for one of two promotion places.

WOULD IT AFFECT LEAGUE ONE IN THE FUTURE?

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Yes – if this model were applied throughout the leagues, it would see 25 teams play in League One next season (as opposed to 24 as planned).

This is thought to be one key issue, as many clubs are loathe to see their solidarity payments reduced due to their being an extra team in the league.

WHAT OTHER PROPOSALS ARE BEING CONSIDERED?

It is thought that a number of other amendments and proposals will be voted on. These are as follows:

The EFL proposal – To decide all curtailed leagues on an unweighted points-per-game basis, with the play-offs proceeding as usual

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The Lincoln City amendment – Any points deductions awarded to clubs will be deducted after the points-per-game calculation is made, rather than applied as part of the calculation

The Stevenage amendment – No club should be relegated from League Two if clubs opt to curtail the fourth tier season

The Ipswich amendment – Should the League One season be ended, clubs should be able to vote on alternative play-off options

The Barnsley amendment – No club should be relegated from any division that fails to complete its fixtures

WHEN WILL THE VOTE ON THESE PROPOSALS TAKE PLACE?

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EFL clubs have now been issued with their ballot papers, and will vote on these various proposals next week.

Votes on whether to curtail the League One season are set to follow.

IS IT LIKELY THAT TRANMERE’S PROPOSAL WILL BE APPROVED?

Clubs – including Sunderland – believe that it is unlikely that Tranmere’s proposal will be passed.

The likeliest scenario is that the EFL’s proposed framework will be passed, with the League One season subsequently curtailed.

This option would end Sunderland’s promotion hopes.