Revealed: The ambitious points target Sunderland need to hit to ensure a play-off place in League One

That’s according to the history books, who give a clear indication of what is needed to secure promotion to the Championship.

We’ve crunched the numbers to find out how many points it takes to secure a play-off place in the third tier, with Phil Parkinson’s side currently perched on the periphery of the top six during football’s hiatus.

Here’s how the history books suggest that the Black Cats will need to fare in order to secure a shot at a return to the Championship:

EXPLAINING THE DATA

We’ve looked at the League One table from every year since the division was renamed in 2004/05. That gives us 15 years of data to look at.

It’s also important to remember where Sunderland currently stand, and how far they could progress.

The Black Cats currently have 59 points in League One and, with eight games remaining and 24 points left to play for, could end the campaign on a maximum points total of 83.

WHAT DOES THE DATA SAY ABOUT THEIR PLAY-OFF HOPES?

So how many wins will Sunderland need to give themselves a fighting chance of the play-offs?

Firstly, it’s worth noting that given the competitive nature of League One this term – and the fact that each team will play two games less than usual owing to the sad demise of Bury – it’s likely that sides could finish in the top six with a points total far less than the average.

But on average, 74 points are needed to be sure of a play-off place - giving Sunderland a points target to aim for.

That would require 15 points - equivalent of course, to five wins - from the final eight games. It’s a ratio of 1.75 points per game which, while high, is certainly achievable.

The highest points total any side has ever needed to reach the top six was found in 2009/10, when Huddersfield Town needed 80 points to secure a play-off place.

It’s unlikely it will come to that this season.

SO WHAT ABOUT AUTOMATIC PROMOTION?

We’ve heard repeatedly that Sunderland’s ambition this term is a top two finish and automatic promotion - but is that dream dead?

Well, according to the data, it’s highly unlikely.

For if things go to plan and Sunderland win ALL of their remaining eight games - and secure a points total of 83 - it would still only be enough for them to have achieved promotion in three of the last 15 league seasons: 2012/13, 2007/08 and 2005/06.

Again, this comes with the caveat that a lower points total may be required this term given the points already dropped by the sides in promotion contention.

But the history books suggest it would take an almighty effort from the Black Cats - and a good deal of fortune - to finish in the top two.