Phil Smith's verdict: Breaking down Sunderland's crucial win and why it felt so significant

Sheffield Wednesday were winning, Wycombe Wanderers were winning and at the Kassam Stadium Karl Robinson’s side were in the ascendancy.

The Black Cats would be going four points adrift of Darren Moore and Gareth Ainsworth’s sides, while Oxford United themselves were staying firmly in the race.

Only a quite staggering save from Anthony Patterson, emerging from nowhere to claw Ciaron Brown’s header away from the line, prevented the situation from becoming even more perilous.

It made the late swing seem even more significant, the impact of Elliot Embleton’s winner coupled with goals at Bolton Wanderers and Gillingham.

Sunderland’s fate still firmly in their own hands, even more so than at the start of a day that always looked set to be a stern test of their play-off and promotion credentials.

Plain sailing it was not but the din of the away end at the final whistle, growing louder with every moment that followed Embleton’s composed finish, told you that they had found a way.

Not since Rochdale in April 2019 has the momentum seemed to switch so decisively in Sunderland’s favour on one day, and perhaps that serves as a caution against getting carried away in the aftermath of these exhilarating late minutes.

Certainly Sunderland’s general performance was a reminder that they are far from the finished product, Robinson not unreasonably suggesting afterwards that his side had been unlucky not to take anything from the game.

There had been Patterson’s save in the second half and on balance it was the hosts who had the better of the first half.

There was more than a touch of fortune about Sunderland’s opener even if the finish from Cory Evans was good, a poor free kick from Jack Clarke breaking fortunately for Jay Matete and even poorer long-range shot then breaking for Evans.

The quirk of Sunderland’s first-half performance was that they looked a constant threat even though their control of the game was non-existent.

Their problem was two-fold: too often they coughed up possession in their own half, inviting pressure from an Oxford side whose quality in transition is superior to most at the level. It forced their midfielders deeper and deeper, and in the moments they did break clear the quality in the final third wasn’t quite there.

As Alex Neil outlined, it meant he felt his side always looked a threat even as he was left visibly anxious and agitated on the touchline.

It was put to him afterwards that his players, again taking the game right to the death before finding the key breakthrough, were not making his life easy. With refreshing candour, he said on this occasion he had made it difficult for his players, taking responsibility for that poor first half in which he felt overcomplicating the set up had been the root of the problems.

Which gets to the heart of why this felt like a big afternoon for Sunderland, both in terms of the tangibles and in the intangibles.

The latter, that growing belief that comes with digging out results when it looks for all money that they have drifted away. This was not a side who won many points late on through the first half of the season but Neil is right to say that they now playing with a resilience and a never-say-die attitude.

The former, the belief that comes from Neil’s changes again altering the flow of the game, and his substitutes coming off the bench motivated to make an impact.

The head coach had initially moved at the break to replace Patrick Roberts with Luke O’Nien, reasoning that his side needed a touch more physicality in the midfield battle.

The game thereafter was certainly a more even contest, but the key change came with just over ten minutes to go when the game appeared to be drifting. Replacing a usually outstanding striker with a centre back in search of a winner will always be a decision to raise eyebrows, but it allowed Sunderland to move to a back four and match up their opposition a little better. Danny Batth helped defend a barrage of crosses and set plays with growing ease, while his side more generally were able to get up the pitch and relieve some of the pressure.

That would tell in those closing moments, a well-worked goal that owed much to Matete’s drive. The young midfielder had been a little loose in possession to begin with but this was a reward for his drive all afternoon, constantly turning away in dangerous areas and driving his side up the pitch.

The drama was far from done there, Ross Stewart missing a significant opening to finish the contest before Billy Bodin flashed a shot inches wide of the far post at the other end just seconds later.

Those six minutes of stoppage time were nerve shredding and the release of emotion in the away end afterwards deafening.

It carried on for some time, Sunderland’s substitutes emerging for their warm-down almost fifteen minutes later to a roar as loud as anything heard so far this season.

There will be twists and turns aplenty from here on in and four years of bitter disappointment at this level means the enthusiasm remains measured but in those celebrations you could sense that belief is slowly returning.

Oh God - they’re drawing us in again, aren’t they…