Phil Smith's Sunderland Q&A: Chances for youngsters, Phil Parkinson, January and Bali Mumba sale under the microscope

In his weekly Q&A, Phil Smith picks through questions from readers on the big Sunderland issues and outlines his thinking...

Which youngsters will get the nod against Fleetwood Town on Tuesday night?

With Sunderland already through to the next round, I’m expecting wholesale changes and it is probably going to be reminiscent of the game against Morecambe two years ago.

There will be a handful of senior players involved, I’d imagine.

Callum McFadzean could do with some more minutes, as could George Dobson in midfield. I’d expect at least one of Will Grigg and Danny Graham to feature, too.

There will be another chance for Jack Diamond, and big opportunities for Dan Neil and Elliot Embleton.

They are probably the two players I’ll be keeping a closest eye on.

Sunderland seem to be lacking variety in their attacking options, and I thought their failure to turn lots of possession and crosses into clear chances underlined it.

Neil and Embleton can bring something different and I would love to see them take their chance.

Phil Parkinson has already confirmed that there could be a debut for Josh Hawkes, who signed from Hartlepool United in the summer and has done well in the U23s.

With Tom Flanagan and Conor McLaughlin now on international duty, you suspect Parkinson will have to give some U23 defenders minutes too.

Oliver Younger seems to be the one closest to conclusion, while Brandon Taylor has of course played in the previous two games.

Is the manager looking to bring in a striker in January?

It’s very hard to assess what Sunderland will be able to do in January because I think, like every club, it will be dictated to an extent by whether we’re any closer to bringing some fans back to stadiums.

They still have a small amount of space in terms of the squad size restrictions, but I imagine they’re pretty much right on the limit in terms of the salary cap.

In terms of the striking options in general, it’s a really interesting question and one that dominated the last couple of weeks of the previous window.

Then, Parkinson always said that he did not think a League One side could have better options than those that he has at his disposal.

On paper, that’s true to an extent.

Where the issue lies is that the performances aren’t necessarily matching that.

I think Aiden O’Brien is a lively player, and I thought his first few performances were encouraging. He seemed to link up well with Grigg, pressed well, and got into some good positions. Some big misses seemed to have knocked his confidence, though, and in recent weeks he has dipped.

Grigg, clearly, is a long way short of his best. To be honest, Saturday was another game where I was left sympathising with where he’s at. There were some good touches from him, and he worked hard. Parkinson seemed frustrated that he didn’t make more of Sunderland’s numerous crosses, but we’ve not really seen anything to suggest feeding off that kind of service is his strength.

He needs someone like Embleton or Neil in the side, I think, to bring him into the game where he can make those runs off the shoulders of defenders. I think about that pre-seasons strike against Harrogate regularly. How many times have seen that kind of through ball played to him from central positions? Nowhere near enough.

Beyond that big miss on Saturday, I think Danny Graham is a good option who is at least getting into positions to convert chances, and Charlie Wyke is in excellent form at the moment.

Clearly, there’s a glaring lack of raw pace and to that end, with Benji Kimpioka injured, that might be something Sunderland look at addressing.

If Sunderland aren’t in the top 6 at the start of the year then shouldn’t we be looking for a new manager?

Positions are going to be less important than points-per-game ratios this year, as the reality of playing a congested season through the pandemic means there’s always going to be a disparity throughout in terms of games played.

But clearly, the brief this season is promotion and so if Sunderland are off the pace at the turn of the year, there is going to be a debate.

I think that’s unlikely, though.

There are concerns over whether Sunderland can get more out of their forwards, and whether there is a clear enough pathway from the academy to the first team.

From what we have seen from the first 10 games, though, they are promotion contenders this season.

Yes, they’ve had some luck in the last couple of games, absolutely.

But they’ve got a good points return from a challenging fixture list, and the statistics are good. They have the best xG in the league right now, and the best xG against.

That strongly suggests that over the course of the season, they won’t be far off.

Right now I don’t have any doubts that they’ll be a top-six side.

Whether they’ll make the top two is clearly a trickier one to assess. They could do with more variety in their play, and certainly more pace.

These are fair concerns, but I think there also has to be some acknowledgement of the more encouraging trends, too.

Is Phil Parkinson the right man for the job?

My honest opinion is that the fundamental issue with where Sunderland are at right now is, as we’ve had for basically a decade, is the lack of clarity from the very top of the club.

Since the significant changes behind the scenes in the summer, we’ve seen some welcome investment into the U23 side, and some tentative signals of a more modern recruitment approach (Arbenit Xhemajli’s arrival was welcome, and his injury bitterly disappointing).

Broadly, though, it’s still a club in limbo.

The recruitment department understaffed (Tony Coton still has not been replaced), the academy still without a manager.

There’s no clear long-term path for progress and success and that stems from the ongoing takeover uncertainty.

I say all this because it’s in this context that the manager works.

So when we ask if he’s the right man for the job, we have to ask, what is the job?

Is it just promotion from League One? If it is, then at this stage, there are some concerns but also some encouragement from the performances so far that he will achieve it.

More broadly, I think it’s absolutely right to discuss managing the development of academy players, and implementing something that can be carried through the divisions and deliver medium to long-term success.

WIthout a doubt, there has to be progression this season, particularly on the youth development front.

We need, at the very least, to see whether the likes of Elliot Embleton and Jack Diamond can produce. Parkinson has of course publicly committed himself to this, stating it as one reason for his exclusion of AIden McGeady.

He will be accountable to that as the season develops.

That, though, requires stability, clarity and investment from ownership.

That remains the clearest problem at Sunderland, and I said the same this time last year when management change was top of the agenda.

Seeing Norwich City raving about Bali Mumba, what part did Phil Parkinson play in his transfer? If he was prepared to allow a talent such as Bali to leave, does that not cast severe doubt over his assessment of players ?

I’m going to pop a link at the bottom of this answer to the feature I did on Bali Mumba’s sale, as part of our Academy in Focus series this summer.

There’s loads of background in there as to how it came about.

In short, Parkinson didn’t have a particularly great role in it.

The negotiations were handled by Richard Hill, and clearly, the sale ultimately sanctioned by Stewart Donald.

In the aftermath, the club suggested that Mumba’s contractual status (he had a year left) was the reason for selling him at what seemed like a price below his value.

Here’s where the manager perhaps does come in.

Mumba may not have been willing to commit to a new deal at that stage, but why would he have done?

There were no indications that he was in Parkinson’s immediate plans at first-team level, and Norwich City were offering him a place in their senior squad.

Sadly, at that point it becomes a total no-brainer for a player whose progress had stalled.

The question of player pathway was at the heart of his decision to leave, and I know there was a knock-down effect in terms of some of the other younger players who moved elsewhere.

The stark reality is that the pathway to the first team at Norwich City, chasing promotion to the Premier League, was stronger than it was to the Sunderland side in League One.

Mumba won’t be a regular this season, but he will play plenty and the progress is already obvious after his promising cameo at the weekend.

We’ve seen a lot of talk about improving the pathway at Sunderland as a result, and there has been some welcome investment into the U23 side.

That was vital, as many of the players leaving were citing the difficulties of improving in a side struggling as badly as that one was.

Clearly, in terms of increased first-team exposure, the jury remains out.

So it was absolutely an ownership decision to sell Mumba.

The broader question of the pathway of course brings the manager into it.

Mumba probably lacks the physicality Parkinson looks for in his wing-backs, and it’s no surprise that he’s benefiting from playing in a technical side.

It’s a mystery to anyone who saw him breeze through that 2018/19 pre-season that he hasn’t ended up in central midfield, but I can see the benefits of him playing full-back in a side that controls possession. His game has always been about poise in possession and driving at players.

It remains a bitter disappointment he left.

Again, I’d argue it was a reflection of the lack of a clear path and style up to the first team.

Ownership uncertainty and a constant churn of managers has that effect.

Read our feature piece on Bali Mumba’s controversial sale from July

Why is Sunderland’s style of play dull?

There have been times when this team has been quite good to watch under the current management.

Clearly, it’s not to everyone’s taste, but think back to that good run at the start of the year.

There’s no doubt Parkinson prioritises defensive structure. Football is all about balance and the current staff err on the side of keeping clean sheets.

But in some of those home games, the pressing was aggressive, we had the centre-backs joining in with attacks..

We haven’t seen as much as that of late, and it’s been a tougher watch as a result.

I’ve alluded to it earlier in the piece, but I do think Sunderland need more variety and a change of pace at times in midfield areas.

It’s hard to argue with their attacking numbers generally (again, their xG is the best in the league), but they seem too reliant on the wide areas for the pace and the incision.

At what point does the manager come under pressure?

Given the takeover uncertainty, I don’t think there will be much pressure so long as the PPG ratio is above two points-per-game.

There are improvements to be made but at the moment, Sunderland’s results have them on course to be a promotion contender.

There would have to be a downturn not just in results, but in the underlying numbers, for that to even become a significant conversation, I expect.

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