Phil Smith's Championship predictions and who to watch out for as Sunderland look to make their mark

It has been a broadly positive summer: the core of last season’s squad retained, the popular Alex Neil still in the dugout, and ownership uncertainty resolved at least in part.

There have also been some exciting new additions, and some not insignificant investment.

Set against that is the acute awareness that the step up to the Championship is a significant one, a level that the Black Cats have not operated in for four years.

With the development of the squad this summer gradual rather than dramatic, expectations about what lies ahead are being managed.

While relatively satisfied with progress generally, Neil pointedly said on Monday night as pre-season ended that the club should be ‘optimistic, but realistic’.

So which teams will Sunderland realistically be competing with this season and who looks set to go right to the very top? And perhaps most significantly, which teams at the moment do the Black Cats look like they could battle their way past over the 46-game season?

As ever, Phil has made his pre-season predictions and you can read them all below...

Frontrunners

Take a brief look at the automatic promotion winners from recent years and a broadly common denominator stands out pretty quickly. Teams benefiting from parachute payments are increasingly standing apart from the rest, and increasingly winning promotion straight back to the Premier League.

There is a sense this season that it might not be quite so clear cut.

Burnley have recruited strongly but are going through a period of real transition, with Vincent Kompany implementing a new style and relying on young players in some key positions. Watford, meanwhile, have handed a deserved opportunity to former Forest Green Rovers boss Rob Edwards but there remains scepticism at talk of a new era of patience at the club. The play-offs looks more likely, though if Watford retain players like Ismaila Sarr then their individual quality could be too great for most.

Norwich City are the favourites and though it's a big ask for Dean Smith to reverse last season's momentum, they just look like the best group in the division once again.

So who could break through outside of that group?

Sheffield United were excellent under Paul Heckingbottom through the second half last season, and though the departure of loanee Morgan Gibbs-White leaves a significant gap, they've recruited well enough.

They're my tip for second, and if they can land some firepower Middlesbrough will be right up there with them. Perfect for Chris Wilder's system, Ryan Giles is an absolute lock for team of the system at left wing back and will dominate the assists chart. A brilliant signing on loan from Wolves.

The chasing pack

Luton and Huddersfield Town did brilliantly to force their way into the play-off pack this year. With West Brom strengthening over the summer it'll be harder for clubs without parachute payments to do that, though Steve Bruce needs a strong start and after last season's malaise the top-six is far from inevitable. Coventry City and Swansea City both could have excellent campaigns, though that depends on getting through to the end of the window without losing any key players. My tip to sneak into sixth is Millwall, who have continuity and a few clever new signings.

Could be in trouble

It feels lazy to tip Rotherham United for the drop, but the losses of Michael Smith and Michael Ihiekwe to Sheffield Wednesday are massive and as of yet, it's hard to say they've been adequately replaced. Beyond that the biggest doubts are over Reading and Birmingham City. The latter are in a period of ownership uncertainty, having only just beaten the drop in recent seasons. And Reading's scope to improve in the transfer market has been severely limited by restrictions put in place due to financial issues in recent years. It's hard to look past this trio, though Michael Appleton has a big task at Blackpool following Neil Critchley's surprise departure to join Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa. From the outside, it also feels as if Hull and Cardiff City's campaigns could go one of two ways. Both have had extensive rebuilds, and the former have lofty ambitions that could become an issue if they start slowly. All these sides have real individual talent, though, so there can be absolutely no room for complacency on Sunderland's part.

Automatic promotion: Norwich City, Sheffield United

Play-offs: Middlesbrough, Burnley, Watford, Millwall

Relegated: Birmingham, Reading, Rotherham United

Sunderland prediction: 15th. A stable season of quiet progression and no great drama. Could it really happen?!

Sunderland signing of the summer: Dan Ballard has has an excellent pre-season and looks to be a very impressive capture for the club.

Sunderland player to watch: Not the most original prediction but it really does feel like Patrick Roberts is ready to make a major impact. He's fit, he's settled, and in an environment where he'll be trusted to take chances. It's exciting.

Championship top scorer: To score 22 goals in your first season at Championship level is some achievement, and makes you think that if he stays at a Swansea City side who will be stronger this year, Joel Piroe won't be far off.

Championship manager of the year: If Coventry City can continue their upward trajectory this year (hopefully after Sunday) then there may well be some overdue recognition for Mark Robins.