Phil Smith: Speed of Alex Neil's Sunderland exit staggering but it’s a scenario which has been a distinct possibility from day one

One supporter rang in and asked about Dwight Gayle, who had just joined Stoke City on loan.

Would Sunderland not be in the market for a player like that? Normally Neil would never discuss players not at his own club (and sometimes not even those) but this was an opportunity to make a point.

Sunderland, he said, would be ‘nowhere near’ that kind of deal.

This is really the heart, you suspect, of Neil’s decision to make what at face value to make a quite staggering switch five games into the new season.

To leave an upwardly-mobile club thriving five games into the season, where attendances are soaring and with it a feel good factor, to join one he has beaten less than a week ago.

The speed with which it has unravelled has been staggering, but in truth it’s a scenario which has been a distinct possibility from day one.

Early in his tenure, when results were beginning to turn for the better and Neil’s stock rising, Sporting Director Kristjaan Speakman spoke to the supporter collective and said that the new head coach ‘clearly’ fit into the club’s model.

It jarred with anyone who had sat and listened to Neil at press conferences, when he consistently and emphatically batted away any talk about of his long-term future.

It was part of his genius, to say that it was only ever about the next game and no one should focus on anything else. Sunderland needed that single-mindedness at what was pretty much it’s lowest ebb, and it helped haul them over the line.

It also left a lingering unease, and it was one that never truly ever went away.

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There were moments when you felt that Sunderland, the weight and potential, the sheer passion, had got under Neil’s skin. After the first leg of the play off semi final, he spoke of his pride and fortune at managing in front such a crowd. He meant it.

That was only ever one part of his drive, though.

Even in the immediate aftermath of that exhilarating Wembley win, a day that will forever be etched in Sunderland history, he pointedly made reference to talks that he would now hold with the club. The Championship is a massive step up, he warned, and he needed to know that Sunderland could compete.

Sunderland have invested, but they have also doubled down on their model to spend on young talent who could potentially grow over a long period of time.

Even amidst a heartening start to the season, Neil has repeatedly said that he would not get carried away.

At times he visibly simmered at the lack of progress in the transfer market, and the lack of cover in specialist positions. At one point, he said he ‘could not knock down the door anymore’.

That fundamental tension been his vision for the future and Sunderland’s own was never resolved, and that is the heart of this separation. It may also be fair to say that this move may also be a better fit for Neil’s own personal circumstances. Only he can answer that.

Talks over a new deal are thought to have been held over the summer and indeed it’s thought Neil WAS signed up to improved terms. But Neil now looks to have delivered his verdict on the answer to that question he posed in the Wembley press room.

Stoke City may have started the season very poorly but their squad is strong and right now, their wage bill dwarfs that of Sunderland.

The Potters have significant limitations in the transfer market because of FFP but Neil clearly feels his short and the medium term chances of success are better there. That he has a preference for signing already established talent is obvious.

This is now the biggest test of Kyril Louis-Dreyfus and Speakman’s tenure. They have committed wholeheartedly to a model in which they develop players and benefit when they move on, replacing them swiftly with somebody else who can fit the style. In theory, the same applies to head coaches.

Sunderland have argued that the model had to change because the lack of an overarching philosophy on the pitch and in recruitment was at the heart of the club’s spectacular decline and the financial issues that sparked it.

There is absolute credence in that, too. The talent and most significantly the value of the current squad is dramatically higher than the day Speakman walked through try the door.

The hierarchy are not for turning, and not for the second head coach in the process. The new head coach will be expected to work within the model and Sunderland remain convinced that in the long run they will be the better for it.

The issue for supporters is two-fold. One is that for all the promising signings, it took Neil’s exceptional organisation, coaching and man-management to turn them into a coherent side capable of winning promotion.

And In football there are some intangibles of crucial importance. Neil connected quickly and deeply with fans, he spoke their language and gave them belief. That is not so easy to find.

Neil and Sunderland were ultimately an uneasy union, and the sense that the former might ultimately opt to take his talents in elsewhere never truly disappeared.

He will have an impact on Stoke, no doubt. Their results will improve almost instantly.

The timing for Sunderland is undoubtedly appalling, underlining the pervading sense that this is a club that has instability in its DNA. That even when things finally look brighter, the optimism will quickly evaporate.

The test for Louis-Dreyfus now is to prove that this is just a bump in the road, a necessary rupture on the road to better things.