'Not the same...' - The stats behind Sunderland's stuttering form since Mike Dodds' exit

It has been eight games since Mike Dodds officially bid farewell to Sunderland to branch out on his own and become the new head coach of Wycombe Wanderers.

At the time, back around the start of February, his departure was met with disappointment and emotional tributes on Wearside, and the consensus among players and colleagues alike was that his role at the Academy of Light was actually a lot more significant than many outside observers might initially have assumed. And as the dust settles on another week in which Sunderland have had to absorb the blow of damaging results in their bid for promotion, those initial assertions about Dodds’ importance in Regis Le Bris’ backroom staff seem to be ringing truer than ever.

Certainly, at least, that is the opinion of club legend Gary Bennett. Speaking in the aftermath of Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at the hands of Coventry City, he said: “You talk about the coach [Le Bris]. He's had a fantastic season, you know, and when things get tough, the tough get going. And sometimes Regis Le Bris is maybe looking around, and he's looking around for that little bit of experience.

“Somebody who knows who's been there, knows about the division and may be able to give him a helping hand. At the present moment, he's trying to do it on his own. I think he is. You know, sometimes it needs that support where we can turn to somebody and say, look, we've got a problem here. How do we handle it?”

Bennett continued on Dodds: “Because, sometimes he's going into games blind. OK, you can watch as many videos as you like. It's not the same. It's not the same as having that experience, knowing about individuals, knowing about clubs, players.

“He doesn't want to be popular. He just wants to be a good coach. And sometimes, Regis Le Bris might be looking around, and he might be looking for that support. You know, somebody who understands and thinking, right, we're in a situation here. What do we do?

“Regis Le Bris, when he came in, he needed that guidance. He needed that help. And I think Mike Dodds gave him that. Now, I don't know if Regis Le Bris thought, ‘Okay, I can do this on my own’, or a situation has come up where Mike Dodds needed to move on. But you're talking about understanding the league, understanding players, understanding the opponents, who you're playing against.”

But statistically-speaking, how bad have Sunderland been affected by Dodds’ exit in recent weeks? We’ve taken a closer look before, with all stats courtesy of Wyscout.

Sunderland’s points per game

Perhaps the most straightforward metric by which we can measure Sunderland’s success with and without Dodds this season is how many points they have taken. Up to and including their dramatic away win over Middlesbrough, the assistant’s final match in the dugout, the Black Cats had taken 58 points from their first 30 Championship matches this season, at a rate of 1.93 points per game.

Since then, however, Sunderland have amassed just 11 points from their last eight outings, at a heavily reduced rate of 1.38 points per game. To further contextualise those figures, if Le Bris’ side had been able to maintain a rate of 1.93, they would theoretically be around four points better off than they currently are, and over the course of an entire campaign if they had only been able to scrape together 1.38 points per game, they would finish the season on approximately 63 points - 10 points short of the tally needed to make the play-offs in last season’s Championship.

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Sunderland’s attacking threat

So far this season, Sunderland have scored 55 goals in the Championship, with 45 of those strikes coming prior to Dodds’ departure. In other words, the Black Cats were averaging 1.5 goals per game over the early stages of the campaign. Over the past eight matches, however, they have managed just 10 goals, bringing their average down to 1.25.

That drop has coincided with a slight fall in Sunderland’s efficiency in front of goal too. Their last eight fixtures have yielded an xG of 1.45, meaning that they are, on average, wasting 0.2 goals per game. In contrast, the Black Cats managed an xG of 1.46 over the course of their first 30 games, meaning that they were marginally outperforming their expected goals tally by around 0.04 per 90 minutes.

Sunderland’s defensive work

At the other end of the pitch, Sunderland have conceded 11 goals in their last eight matches, meaning that they have shipped 1.38 goals per game since Dodds left. Across the 30 games prior, that tally sat at 26 strikes, equivalent to 0.87 per 90 minutes.

In terms of xG, their opponents have averaged a total of 1.24 in recent weeks, meaning that the Black Cats are conceding more often than they should be, but also that they are allowing their rivals to create more chances against them - over the course of their first 30 matches, their xG against tally was just 1.07.

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