What the underlying data is saying about Sunderland under Phil Parkinson and the major areas of concern

Discussing the decision to sack Jack Ross with Sunderland sixth in the table, Executive Director Charlie Methven said the decision had been taken not so much because of results, which were, he said, ‘so-so’.
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It was, he said, more about ‘underlying performance data’.

In short, that the performances Sunderland were producing in the early stages of the season did not reflect a team that could be expected to challenge for the top two over the course of the whole campaign.

A change was made in the belief that Sunderland’s squad were capable of significantly better than the level on show, with Phil Parkinson’s League One experience deemed as key.

Sunderland manager Phil Parkinson is under pressure after a poor start to his Sunderland tenureSunderland manager Phil Parkinson is under pressure after a poor start to his Sunderland tenure
Sunderland manager Phil Parkinson is under pressure after a poor start to his Sunderland tenure
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Eleven games on, and the results have worsened considerably.

Parkinson has just two wins and has seen his side knocked out of three cup competitions. Sunderland sit 11th in the table, nine points off second.

The mood on Wearside has worsened considerably, supporters chanting ‘sacked in the morning’ as the Black Cats laboured to defeat against Burton Albion.

Sunderland have stood squarely behind their new manager, but what is the underlying data now saying about this side and where it’s heading?

ATTACK

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Parkinson’s tenure began with an insipid display away at Wycombe Wanderers, but the games that followed offered promise that the Black Cats boss could draw improvements from Sunderland’s misfiring frontline.

Tranmere were dismantled in a vibrant display, the forward players showing fluidity of movement and a purpose in possession that Micky Mellon’s side were unable to live with.

Most encouraging was an excellent display from Will Grigg, who not only got on the scoresheet but looked lively in possession, often dropping deep to link up the play and created chances for this team-mates.

Parkinson was also benefiting from the unique threat posed by a fit-again Duncan Watmore.

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The bounce hasn’t lasted, and recent weeks have seen Sunderland increasingly struggle to carve out key chances for their forwards.

Parkinson has few attackers in any sort of form, and has pointed to the return of Charlie Wyke and Lynden Gooch as critical.

His side will certainly benefit from Wyke’s return, with Grigg understandably struggling to thrive in the generally direct gameplan deployed against Coventry and Burton.

The numbers nevertheless suggest that significant improvement in the team’s general attacking play is required if Wyke, or indeed any striker, is to thrive.

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Sunderland’s record in the final third under Parkinson is almost identical to the 14 games that Ross took charge of at the beginning of the season, two of which were against Premier League opposition in the Carabao Cup.

In those 14 games, Sunderland were averaging 10.9 shots per game, with 4.1 of those on target. In Parkinson’s 11 games so far, they are averaging 10.8 shots, just 2.8 of those on target.

It’s something that the Black Cats boss has remarked on regularly in his pre and post-match comments, urging his players to test the opposition goalkeeper more and above else, to show more commitment in breaking into the box in support of Grigg or whoever is leading the line.

Getting more crosses into the box, and specifically the kind of early delivery that his forwards would thrive on, was one of the goals Parkinson outlined when in an early interview with safc.com, he responded to a question from a supporter as to how he would go about getting a better return from his strikers with a previously impressive League One record.

So far, that has not materialised.

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Under Ross, Sunderland averaged 20.5 crosses-per-game, 6.2 of which were accurate. Under Parkinson, that has risen only marginally to 20.9 per game, with 5.9 of those accurate.

XG, a statistic used to measure the quality of a team’s shots on the likelihood of it leading to a goal, reflects the malaise in recent weeks.

According to wyscout’s measurement, Sunderland have averaged an XG of 1.39 per game under Parkinson. That’s a minor improvement on the 1.34 under Ross, but is clearly buffeted by the Tranmere win and crucially, does not include the two FA Cup games against Gillingham where the Black Cats had just two shots on target across 210 minutes of football.

So far, Sunderland’s squad have struggled to implement Parkinson’s attacking vision and though injuries offer some mitigation, it is clear that the issues from earlier in the campaign are not as easily corrected as the club’s ownership had supposed.

DEFENCE

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Parkinson watched Sunderland’s early-season games under Jack Ross before taking charge on Wearside and one of his key messages was that the side were ‘too open’.

Unimpressed with their vulnerability to opposition counter-attacks, he talked of ensuring the games were not played like ‘basketball’, and of ‘locking in’ their attacks.

The thumping of Tranmere Rovers looked like a promising early indication of this plan, with Max Power and George Dobson forming an effective midfield pairing.

In recent weeks, however, that cohesion has evaporated and the centre of the park has been an area in which Sunderland have struggled.

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Against Leicester City U21s, the Black Cats were completely overrun in the middle of the park.

There was perhaps some mitigation for that, Parkinson playing Grant Leadbitter and Dylan McGeouch together in a combination that he would be unlikely to play in a league contest given their similar attributes.

Both players were also short of match fitness but the major concern is that a similar pattern has emerged in many of the games that followed.

Against Coventry City and Burton Albion in particular, Sunderland were vulnerable to runners from midfield and that was epitomised in the passage of play that saw Nigel Clough’s side carve the Black Cats open at will as the second half progressed.

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The statistics suggest that Parkinson’s impact on the Black Cats as a defensive unit has been minimal at best.

They are conceding 10.8 shots a game on average, compared to 10.9 under Jack Ross in the first 14 games of the season.

An average of three of those are on target, only marginally better than under Ross.

Though they are on average allowing far fewer crosses into the box (12.9 compared to 22.7) their XG against has risen considerably and is a reflection of the key chances they are gifting to the opposition with alarming regularity.

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Though Ross regularly lamented a lack of clean sheets from his side, and it was one of their key issues in the early stages of the campaign, the Black Cats boss did oversee a significant improvement in Sunderland’s general defensive play.

Their XG against in his 14 games this season on average was 0.94, down from 1.24 in the 2018/19 campaign.

Under Parkinson that has jumped to 1.28. Of most concern is that their performances in this regard are worsening over time, rather than improving.

Against Leicester City U21s, Scunthorpe United, Coventry City and Burton, their XG against was worse than in any game managed by Jack Ross this season, the only exception being the victory over Burnley in the Carabao Cup.

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Parkinson has secured two clean sheets on home turf but clearly has significant problems in getting the overall balance of his side right and both the results and underlying numbers reflect a side less resilient and less robust in the admittedly underwhelming early weeks of the campaign.

Remarkably, their XG against for the season as a whole remains the best in the division by wyscout’s measurement, but the recent trend is worrying and must be corrected.

VERDICT

Six games into Parkinson’s tenure, Methven pointed to the broader picture and the underlying numbers to paint a more positive picture on the decision to change managers.

There was some merit in that.

Against Shrewsbury Sunderland had hit the woodwork on a number of occasions, and against Oxford they were denied a stonewall penalty in the dying minutes.

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Recent weeks have presented a far more challenging picture and came to a head in the woeful closing stages against Burton Albion.

Not only were Sunderland vulnerable in defence, they failed to register a single shot after going behind midway through the second half.

Parkinson was unlucky in some of the early games of his tenure, but it is clear that the underlying data now is little better, if at all, than when Ross was in charge.

Sunderland, unquestionably, remain someway off the promotion pace in both boxes.

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The narrative has quickly shifted from a side that should be in the top two, to one in need of significant reshaping in the January window.

The pressure is growing both on Parkinson and the club’s ownership, with both results and performances crucial in the run-up to that January window.

Supporters will want to see their side not just climb the table, but play with a clear and coherent plan.

At the moment, they are increasingly short of that, and the underlying data reflects that.

*All stats courtesy of wyscout.com