Statistics mean everything and nothing to Sunderland, Luton and Barnsley - but which one will fall away?

At school I was always pretty good at sums and English and that; so I’m putting these twin talents to use this week. Prepare to be dazzled.

Victory over Plymouth Argyle means that Sunderland now have 68 points from 34 games: an average of exactly two points per game (I worked out that one in my head). This gives a projected figure for the end of the season of 92 points (I got some help with that one).

Over the last 10 years in League One, the average points total for the team finishing second is 89.5. The lowest total for a team finishing second is 83 (Bournemouth, 2012-13). The highest is 96 (Blackburn, 2017-18).

So it is likely that any team finishing on 90 points or more will be automatically promoted. But there is another way of looking at things that seems even more encouraging.

The average for teams finishing third in the last 10 years is 85.6 points. The most points for a third placed club is 90 (Sheffield United, 2011-12, who then lost the play-off final on penalties). The lowest is 79 (Brentford, 2012-13, who also lost the play-off final).

Sunderland are probably going to accrue more points this season than any side that ever finished third.

The obvious wasp in the leotard here, aside of the “anything can happen” line, is that Luton and Barnsley have inconsiderately put themselves in the current top two.

Barnsley also average exactly two points per game, Luton are on 2.14. But the last decade’s statistics suggest that one of the top three will fall away; as Shrewsbury did last season.

Jack Ross’ side, who essentially either win or draw, are more consistent than Barnsley.

For example, the Tykes had an undeniably impressive 3-0 win at Southend with 10 men on Saturday. But they have lost five times this season and failed to score on seven occasions, whereas SAFC have endured just two defeats and scored in every game.

No one needs to be reminded that Sunderland’s fixture at Oakwell this Tuesday is crucial. But whatever the result, it won’t be the end of the matter.

In football, statistics provide a diverting subject for journalists and fans to muse upon. It’s all right for us to throw numbers around during our footy talk. But it would be horrifying if Ross and his players were thinking about anything other than their next game.

That’s against Wycombe Wanderers, who have failed to win any of their last six matches and lost their last four.

These facts and figures are all interesting and fun. However, we won’t know their relevance until May 4.

There is a famous quote from Benjamin Disraeli, later nicked by Mark Twain. Disraeli reckoned: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Well he was lying. While statistics don’t prove anything, they aren’t meaningless either. If the numbers I have alluded to provide any sort of hope or encouragement, then I will take it. In football we should never decline anything that offers hope or encouragement.

We have statistics to prove this.