What would happen to Labour's North East Red Wall fall if crushing defeat in Hartlepool by-election was repeated

Labour ‘red wall’ seats in the North East would be likely to fall if they saw a similar swing in votes to the Conservatives as seen in the Hartlepool by-election.

Friday, 7th May 2021, 4:31 pm
What would happen to Labour's North East Red Wall fall if defeat in Hartlepool by-election was repeated.
What would happen to Labour's North East Red Wall fall if defeat in Hartlepool by-election was repeated.

Jill Mortimer has become Hartlepool’s new MP after the Conservatives won the Parliamentary by-election with a 16% swing in votes and near 7,000 majority.

The result broke Labour’s 57-year Parliamentary reign over the town, and showed a large swing of votes to the Conservatives from the 2019 General Election.

The Conservatives received a 23% increase in votes, while Labour’s share dropped 9% compared to the last election.

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We looked at what would happen if other seats nearby were to hold an election now, and what a similar 16% swing of votes to the Conservatives would mean for those areas.

In the 2019 General Election in South Shields Labour’s Emma Lewell-Buck won with 45.6% of the votes ahead of the Conservative candidate Oni Oviri, who picked up 20.3% of the vote.

Despite the large advantage Labour had then, a similar swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the next election would see the seat change hands.

Jarrow would also fall to the Conservatives with a 16% swing, even though last time out Labour received a 45.1% vote share compared to the Conservatives who had 27.6%.

The City of Durham, where Labour received 42% to Conservatives 31.7%, and North Durham seats, where the party had 44.2% compared to 32.9%, would also both turn blue.

Labour seats in Teesside would also fall to the Conservatives, including Stockton North, which was narrowly held by Labour in 2019 with 43.1% of the votes, ahead of the Conservatives with 40.6%.

Even the Middlesbrough seat, which Labour held in 2019 with 50.5% of the vote, would likely fall to the Conservatives, who last time recorded a 25.8% share, such is the size of a 16% swing in votes.

Washington and Sunderland West, where Labour recorded 42.5% of votes compared to the Conservatives 32.6%, and Sunderland Central where they won the seat with a 42.2% share compared to 35.4%, would both turn blue.

Houghton and Sunderland South would likely see the same fate if a 16% swing occurred, with Labour in 2019 receiving 40.7% of the vote over the Conservatives, who received 32.9%.

Even Easington, where Labour’s Grahame Morris picked up 45.5% of the vote ahead of the Conservatives with 26.4%, could fall.

In the 2019 General Election Labour had held Hartlepool with a 3,595 majority, after picking up 37.7% of the vote ahead of the Conservatives with 28.9% and The Brexit Party with 25.8%.