The data that could decide if England’s lockdown ends on June 21

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce on Monday, June 14 whether a final easing of coronavirus restrictions in England will go ahead on June 21.

Saturday, 12th June 2021, 10:02 am

The last stage of the roadmap out of lockdown is due to see an end to all legal limits on social contact, a reopening of nightclubs, no restrictions on the size of weddings or other gatherings, and the return of large audiences for events such as theatre performances.

These are as follows: whether the vaccine rollout is continuing successfully; if evidence shows vaccines are reducing hospital cases and deaths among people who have been vaccinated; that infection rates are not risking a surge in hospital cases that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS; and that the Government’s assessment of the risks has not been fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.

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A message from the Beat Covid NE campaign.
A message from the Beat Covid NE campaign.

Cases, infections and hospital admissions are all rising, although still well below the peak of the second wave of the virus; the vaccines are continuing to prove successful in reducing the number of deaths; but there is new evidence that the Delta variant of Covid-19 which first originated in India, is now responsible for up to 96% of new cases – with a 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant, which originated in Kent last year.

The previous easing of lockdown restrictions took place on Monday, May 17.

Here is a detailed snapshot of the latest available numbers:

*Vaccine rollout

Some 34.3million first doses of Covid-19 vaccine have now been delivered in England – the equivalent of 77.5% of the adult population.

A further 24.7million second doses have also been given, meaning 55.8% of people aged 18 and over are likely to be fully vaccinated.

The Government has said it is on target to offer all people aged 50 and over both doses of vaccine by June 21, and for all adults to be offered a first jab by the end of this July.

Vaccine take-up varies among different age groups.

*Hospital cases and deaths

The vaccine rollout has played a major role in helping reduce the number of Covid-19 hospital patients and deaths since the start of the year.

Up to May 30 2021, vaccines had averted around 42,000 hospital admissions and more than 14,000 deaths in older adults in England, according to the latest estimates from Public Health England.

This includes 11,800 deaths among people aged 80 and over.

However, hospital cases are rising again.

A total of 158 hospital admissions of people with Covid-19 in England were reported for June 9, according to NHS England.

This is up from 101 a week earlier and is the highest number since April 12.

The seven-day average for admissions currently stands at 120, the highest since April 21.

The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in England stood at 884 as of 8am on June 11.

This is up from 805 a week earlier, while the seven-day average currently stands at 856 patients, the highest since May 16.

*Infection levels and case rates

The proportion of people testing positive for coronavirus in England has increased in recent weeks.

Around one in 560 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to June 5 – up from one in 640 in the previous week, according to estimates published on Friday, June 11 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It is the highest level since the week to April 10.

These figures are still very low compared with the peak of the second wave in January; the latest estimate of one in 560 people is the equivalent of 0.2% of the population, well below the 2.1% estimated at the start of the year.

But the downwards trend in infections since January has gone into reverse, with the latest numbers continuing to show an increase, the ONS said.

The rate of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in England is now at its highest level for three months.

A total of 60.1 cases per 100,000 people were recorded in the seven days to June 7 – the highest since March 5.

The rate hit 680.6 per 100,000 at the peak of the second wave in early January.

Around nine in 10 local authority areas in England (89%) are currently recording a rise in rates.

This is the highest proportion since the start of this year.

*Variants

The Delta variant of coronavirus, first identified in India, is driving the rise in infections and case rates, and is now responsible for up to 96% of new Covid-19 cases, Public Health England said on Friday.

It is also believed to have a 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant, which originated in Kent at the end of last year.

Growth rates for Delta cases are doubling in some regions in as little as 4.5 days.

But while this variant now accounts for the overwhelming majority of new cases of Covid-19, Public Health England said it was “encouraging” that the increase is “not yet accompanied by a similarly large increase in hospitalisations”, adding that the vaccination programme is continuing to reduce the impact of the variant among sections of the public where there is high take-up of both doses.

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